惠譽料今年全球智能手機付運跌15%至17% 憧憬明年強勁復甦
評級機構惠譽發表報告,由於新冠疫情致全球經濟放緩,在需求下跌下今年全球智能手機銷售料大跌。隨著需求復甦及5G手機銷售增加,料至2021年智能手機銷售將反彈。
據IDC數據為基礎,繼過去兩年跌2%至4%後,該行料今年全球智能手機付運跌15%至17%。消費者受失業率上升及可支配收入下跌影響,料押後非必需品開支,或導致智能手機置換周期延長。首季智能手機付運按年跌12%,受累中國付運大跌20%,中國付運佔全球達四分之一。
首季蘋果公司付運持平,第二季料因新冠疫情由中國蔓延至歐美而惡化。小米(01810.HK)及Vivo跑贏大市,首季付運分別升6%至7%,其早已開發中國以外市場,後者對中至低端智能手機需求正增加。小米維持是印度市場領導,亦屬中國以外智能手機銷售增長最快市場。
以按年計,第二季智能手機銷售料急劇倒退,源於許多商店關閉及消費者留在家中。不過,惠譽料下半年智能手機銷售將復甦,源於經濟活動逐漸恢復,消費者重回市場。不過,由於憂慮第二波疫情爆發,全年付運料按年下滑。下半年消費情緒料溫和,至明年首季前不預期有明顯復甦,縱使中國4月智能手機付運按年增14%。
惠譽料供應鏈風險可控,各國正繼續生產及維持經濟活動,同時保持出行限制。在封城初期因為勞工短缺,智能手機供應鏈曾遇到重大干擾,特別是中國,不過,現大致回復正常。
該行料明年智能手機需求將強勁復甦,即使取決於各國疫後經濟復甦及5G滲透速度。該行料5G將於已發展市場及部分新興市場強勢展開,並料5G手機將佔明年智能手機付運介乎17%至20%。
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