植耀輝: ATM及港交所(00388.HK)勢強 維他奶(00345.HK)宜觀望
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，疫情繼續在全球蔓延，個別地區如美國正蘊釀第二波爆發，身邊同事朋友均異口同聲表示，今年外遊計劃應該也要泡湯了。但始終健康要緊，而且本地不少商場推出大量優惠，雖然筆者購物意欲仍低，但本地疫情有所紓緩，商場人流亦見反彈，始終也是好現象。
至於大市方面，騰訊(00700.HK)繼續發功，令大市衝高至24,900點之上。當然，論近期強勢，除ATM外肯定要數港交所(00388.HK)，始終有中概股第二上市憧憬，而且近日成交亦普遍維持在千億元水平，肯定有利其業務表現。不過，其股價短期走勢過往亦較易受市場氣氛左右，故除非港股能出現突破，否則股價料需先「抖抖氣」了。
另外，原先想跟大家跟進大家樂(00341.HK)業績表現，但發現大快活(00052.HK)將於下周二公布業績，故下周再作分析，今日(24日)先談另一隻已出全年業績之公司維他奶(00345.HK)。維他奶雖然股東應佔溢利倒退23%，但已較發盈警時之倒退25%至35%為好。而單計下半年業績，股東盈利僅得266.9萬元，同比大跌98.5%，不過亦總比錄得虧損好。而且因受疫情影響，業績差亦是預期之內，故股價在績後不跌反升。不過筆者認為，維他奶前景仍充滿相當多不確定性，特別是內地發展增速放緩以及競爭加劇兩大因素，值得投資者關注。
隨著本地業務日趨飽和，維他奶亦早佈局內地發展。事實上早年表現相當出色，在2017/18年度，當時增速達到38%。由於有可觀增長，令其一舉變成備受市場矚目之「內需股」，估值亦進一步獲上調；不過到2018/19年度，增速已放慢至25%，而上/下半財年增速更分別為32%及13%。到2019/20年度，上半財年增速其實已放緩至只得8%，下半財年受疫情影響，倒退近23%。當然，集團憧憬內地業務將於下年逐步重拾增長，但能否如願仍有待觀察。
另外一個要留意的地方，就是現時內地植物蛋白飲品競爭激烈。據資料顯示，於2014至2018年期間，內地包裝豆奶飲品市場(包括豆漿)年複合銷量和銷售額增長分別為9.3%和12%，同期牛奶增幅只得1.1%及4.6%。所以伊利、達利食品(03799.HK)及維維等企業亦相繼進軍豆奶市場。維他奶過去較著重於一、二線城市，在該些地區發展有相當優勢；然而到三、四線城市，競爭則變得相當激烈，而且還要面對地區品牌挑戰。所以過去數年，維他奶在推廣開支持續增加，亦變相削弱盈利表現。
最後，以現價計維他奶估值不算低，若未來內地業務未見太大改善，估值或會被下調。故現階段暫不建議大家吸納。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，持有阿里巴巴股份)~
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