美團點評-W(03690.HK)：從生鮮O2O更迭探討美團新業務發展之路，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
O2O重塑萬億生鮮市場，多元商業模式並存。生鮮O2O從 2014年興起到 2016 年完成洗牌，發展至今已形成四種主流商業模式：前置倉模式（叮咚買菜、每日優鮮、美團買菜）、“到店+到家”模式（盒馬鮮生、永輝生活）、平台模式（京東到家、美團閃購、餓了麼）、社區拼團模式（十薈團），其發展主要圍繞：（1）線上和線下並行擴大用户羣；（2）精準定位，差異選品，提升客單價；（3）加強履約及供應鏈能力，優化體驗，提升復購率；（4）精細運營，降低成本，改善盈利。綜合評估後，我們認為分佈式建設的前置倉模式更優，具備規模化擴張潛力。
前置倉呈現 U 型盈利模型，整體市場有望加速發展。前置倉的盈利模式呈現“U”型特徵，規模化初期階段或因運營和供應鏈的加大投入導致盈利下滑，隨後隨着規模化再呈現增長，目前部分區域已成功跑通。受疫情驅動，前置倉市場有望加速發展，我們預計未來 3 年將完成一二線城市的覆蓋（開城紅利，從 0到1），隨後進行存量加密和低線下沉（下沉紅利，從 1到N），預計 2025 年總交易額有望突破千億。
“平台+自營”雙管齊下，美團積極佈局生鮮賽道。生鮮作為公司“Food戰略的延伸，無論是尋求長期增長，還是防止競對彎道趕超，其發展具有必然性。公司藉助流量體系、配送網絡的優勢，過去 4 年先後嘗試了前店後倉、閃購平台和前置倉等多種模式，19年各類生鮮業務的總交易規模近 200 億，佔生鮮電商市場 5.65%。閃購平台伴隨場景突破和整體單量持續增長，前置倉將為自營模式發展重點，20年 5月已在全國鋪設145個倉， 經過加速擴張期後長期有望佔據25%的市場份額。
投資建議：美團作為本地生活服務龍頭，從餐飲向生鮮延伸，不斷拓展業務版圖。 未來將繼續加大閃購平台和美團買菜的投入， 生鮮營收將在21 年突破百億並保持快速增長，分部的遠期估值達到千億級別。預計公司 20~22年整體調整淨利潤為 53/141/276 億元，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：線上需求提升低於預期，行業競爭加劇，難以規模化複製。
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