波司登(03998.HK)：品牌持續升級，業績表現靚麗，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
公司收入/業績分別同增 17.4%/22.6%。FY2019/20公司收入/歸母淨利潤分別同增 17.4%/22.6%至 121.9 /12.0億元。毛利率較上年提升 1.9PCTS至 55.0%，主要系：1）終端折扣率提升；2）主品牌銷售單價提升；3）羽絨服業務佔比增加。銷售/管理費用率分別為 35.1%/7.0%，較上年分別+2PCTs/持平，綜合使淨利率提升0.4PCTS 至 9.9%。
羽絨服主業引領增長，依靠渠道革新持續發力。1）羽絨服業務引領增長：90%+終端銷售春節前完成，受疫情影響有限，收入同增 24.2%至 95.1 億元，佔比提升 4.3pcts 至 78.0%。分品牌看，波司登品牌奠定增長基調，收入同增 22.7%至 84.0 億元。雪中飛/冰潔收入分別同比+37.8%/-3.7%至5.0/2.1億元。分渠道看，羽絨服業務線下收入為 72.5億元，同增 23.1%，線下關停低迷小店新開優質大店，換標轉型升級，店效提升明顯，其中波司登品牌門店同增 368 家至 3811 家（直營/經銷 1624/2187 家）。線上渠道持續發力，羽絨服線上收入同增 28.0%至 22.6億元。2） OEM業務訂單集中在上半財年不受疫情影響，全年收入同增 17.8%至 16.1 億元。3）女裝業務春季產品受疫情影響下滑，收入同減18.2%至 9.8億元。
延續拉式補貨優勢+重視現金流管理，營運健康可控。供應鏈端延續拉式補貨的一貫優勢（首次訂貨佔比僅佔 40%左右），存貨週轉天數上升 28天至155天（估算春節到 2020/03/31期間收入下降帶來天數上升 24天），應收賬款週轉天數較上年同期下降 1.9天至 33.0天。賬上現金及等價物 42.1億元，經營性現金流量淨額 12.3億元，疫情之下整體營運狀態健康可控。
展望全年，長期增長動力突出。我們認為 FY20/21品牌升級紅利持續釋放，疊加上一財年新店貢獻， 我們估算預計公司羽絨服業務在量價帶動下能夠實現收入 20%左右的增長。渠道革新持續進行，公司持續對渠道進行梳理，加強零售管理，過去兩個財年公司門店調整數量達到數千家，預計 FY20/21依然會進行渠道革新工作，但涉及數量相對較少。同時當前租金成本相對較低，預計在費用端能夠進行有效控制。
投資建議。公司是國民羽絨服第一品牌，長期看隨着品牌轉型、渠道革新、快反模式的建立，後續收入增長及盈利能力有望持續提升。我們預計公司FY20/21~22/23 歸母淨利潤 15.3/18.5/21.8 億元，對應 FY20/21PE 為 15倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情持續時間超過預期，宏觀經濟增速放緩；主品牌復甦不達預期；暖冬影響終端銷售情況。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
