H&H國際控股(01112.HK)：Q2增長有所調整，判斷H2業績向上復甦，維持“買入”評級
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
核心觀點
受發貨節奏&海外疫情影響，預計2020Q2公司增長有所調整。展望2020H2，奶粉啟動渠道擴張、Swisse企業代購望在物流恢復後回暖，整體收入望加速增長，且低基數下利潤彈性更大。判斷全年完成業績目標確定性強，維持“買入”評級。
2020Q2 較高庫存下奶粉增速放緩，海外疫情發酵代購降幅擴大。判斷 2020Q2公司增長承壓。BNC 業務：2020Q1 國內疫情下奶粉經銷商備貨形成較大庫存，2020Q2 公司控制發貨以維護渠道健康，估計增速有所放緩。ANC 業務：儘管個人代購已經基本出清，但 4 月以來全球疫情爆發，企業代購由於澳洲封城、物流停擺，預計降幅較 2020Q1 繼續擴大。費用方面，2019H1 受百日行動影響公司相關費用投放較少，費投主要集中在 H2，2019 上下半年銷售費率分別為38.6%/43.2%。預計 2020 年整體費用投放較為均衡，判斷低基數下 2020H1 費用率同比一定幅度增長，盈利表現弱於收入表現。
奶粉板塊新推中高端產品、重啟渠道擴張，澳洲疫情穩定後 ANC 增速望回升。2020 年公司在兩大業務上均有更多品類和渠道上的佈局調整。BNC 業務：規劃7 月上市 2 款定位中高端的奶粉新品：素加和貝素貝加，定位渠道品牌，將給予經銷商豐厚渠道利潤，助力公司奶粉在三四線城市的母嬰渠道擴張； 目前公司母嬰網點總數超 3.7 萬家，較 10 萬+的母嬰網點總量仍有較大空間。預計門店分銷拓展將對奶粉業務產生增量貢獻。ANC 業務：疫情下保健品消費需求旺盛，2020Q2 免疫類產品增速延續 Q1 增長表現（2020Q1 免疫類同增 90%+）。隨着 5 月下旬 6 月初澳洲封城陸續解除，預計企業代購將在物流恢復情況下增速轉正，需求旺盛情況下全年增長樂觀。
2020H2 收入望加速&盈利彈性更大， 判斷公司完成全年目標確定性強。BNC 業務：奶粉受疫情影響小，Q1/Q2 由於發貨節奏調整，增長有所波動，H2 新品上市&渠道擴張後望加速增長，預計全年同增 10%+。益生菌受益健康免疫類需求提升，2020Q1 同增 36%，跟蹤 Q2 趨勢延續，基於旺盛需求公司規劃 7 月初對益生菌上調零售價 10%-15%，全年望延續較快增長。ANC 業務：一方面澳洲疫情穩定、物流恢復，企業代購望回暖；另一方面中國線上需求旺盛，持續高增，線下已提交 4 個藍帽子備案申請，以及在今年新增 1-2 個線下藍帽子產品，預計 H2 繼續貢獻增量銷售。利潤方面，2019H2 費用基數較高，2020 年整體費投均衡，預計下半年盈利彈性較大。全年看，公司規劃較多新品和新渠道推廣，預計整體費用投放力度或將維持。公司指引全年收入實現正增長、EBITDA 率穩定，判斷完成目標確定性強。
風險因素：全球疫情發展超預期風險，原料價格波動風險；食品安全風險。
投資建議： 維持2020-2022年EPS預測1.73/2.14/2.57元， 現價對應PE為18/14/12倍，維持“買入”評級。
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