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復星旅遊文化(01992.HK):立足度假村業務,長線思維精雕細琢產品,首次“買入”評級,目標價11.00港元
格隆匯 06-23 09:11

機構:華創證券

評級:買入

目標價:11.00港元

公司是復星旗下“快樂”板塊資產的承接平台之一,主營 Club Med 為核心的度假村業務及三亞亞特蘭蒂斯為代表的旅遊目的地項目,並逐步涉足相似業態複製和管理輸出,以長線思維精雕細琢產品,提供快樂的休閒度假體驗、更為富足的精神享受。

卡位稀缺,資產較難複製, GO文化獨樹一幟: 2019年底公司在運營的 Club Med度假村共計 66個(包含 Club Med Joyview),遍佈於歐非中東、美洲、亞太三大區域;產品不斷升級,四五星級度假村佔比持續提升,2019 年達到 85%;公司為國內市場推出 Club Med Joyview,為中國客户提供距市區 2-3h車程的度假村服務。當前公司擁有山地型度假村 21個(17 個位於歐洲,4個位於亞洲。2019H2 新開兩個滑雪度假村),陽光型 42個,剩餘三個為位於我國的 Club MedJoyview;品牌和管理之外,度假村倚重自然風貌和好的氣候水文條件,資產稀缺,難以複製;公司獨有 GO 文化,GO 組織度假村活動,為入住家庭提供獨有旅行體驗。自然資源稟賦、良好的管理基礎、獨有的旅行文化和有號召力的品牌,是 Club Med 難以替代的價值。另外,公司積極推進數字化和 C2M 策略,優化客户的入住前、後體驗。

亞特蘭蒂斯登陸三亞,成為地標:海南作為國內唯一熱帶海島,承接了大量度假需求;公司在海南三亞引入亞特蘭蒂斯,是環太平洋地區首座亞特蘭蒂斯,保留原管理和服務特色,為三亞度假人羣提供高端休閒享受;作為中國第一座七星級酒店,亞特蘭蒂斯開業之後快速達到 7成以上入住率,成為海棠灣最耀眼的地標建築之一。

自營項目提供資產安全墊,逐步輸出管理經驗。

投資建議:疫情對旅遊項目造成較大影響,鑑於疫情因素,國內項目雖然陸續恢復,但海外項目多依然非正常運營,公司自營項目剛性成本較高,我們預計公司 2020-2022 年歸母淨利潤約-10.6、6.3、7.4億元,當前股價對應 2021 年業績約 14.3 倍。2020 年疫情對業績帶來一次性較大沖擊,按照 2021 年業績採用分部估值,參照行業可比公司正常估值水平,度假村和亞特蘭蒂斯 EV/EBITDA給予 7倍,合計價值對應約 220億;太倉和麗江項目按現金流測算 NPV約 80億,扣減公司 60 億元有息負債後,資產淨值約 240 億元,考慮港股流動性因素折價後價值約 120-130億元左右,對應每股價值為 10 元左右(即約 11元港幣),首次覆蓋,“推薦”評級。

風險提示:疫情持續時間較長,地緣政治環境不利,新項目進度不及預期等。

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