中信證券:維持百威亞太(1876.HK)“增持”評級 目標價27港元
中信證券發表研究報告表示,維持百威亞太(1876.HK)“增持”評級,目標價27港元。
該研報表示,百威亞太地區Q2業績復甦理想,預計收入降幅明顯縮窄。其中中國地區,2020 年 4 月,銷售環比復甦、銷量同比下降 17%(2020 Q1公司中國區銷量下降 46.5%);5月,零售渠道已完全恢復、餐飲渠道恢復至 90%、夜場渠道恢復至70%左右的水平。綜合考慮百威渠道佔比情況,報告預計 Q2 銷量呈現中高單位數下滑。ASP方面,雖然夜場渠道在公共衞生事件中影響最大且復甦最晚、拖累 ASP,但公司通過在 KA、電商等渠道引導消費升級,有望通過產品結構升級保持 ASP 正增長。綜合來看,預計Q2收入端下滑有望縮減至 5%-15%。
韓國地區主要受到公共衞生事件及競爭格局影響(2020Q1 韓國第二品牌 Hite 啤酒業務同比增加 29.4%,市場份額提升),公司 2020Q1 亞太東銷售額下降 20.8%,其中銷售量和銷售價分別降低22.2%和增長1.9%。考慮到韓國並沒有實行嚴格的管控措施,主要看消費情緒轉好,預計 Q2 公司銷量受益消費復甦,環比改善;ASP 受益啤酒税改革,延續 Q1趨勢。
針對未來發展趨勢,該報告表示目前中國市場繼續推進動高端化,預計 2020H2 收入端微增,預計全年保持雙位數增長。
在韓國方面,韓國主流啤酒的競爭趨勢將會持續全年,公司將在未來將通過產品組合持續發力。2020H2,隨着公共衞生事件緩解以及韓國啤酒市場景氣復甦,收入有望較上半年改善、同比增速持平左右。
另外,該份報告還強調百威亞太的業績復甦的快慢與彈性除了與公共衞生事件可控程度相關外,還取決於:中國區夜場渠道恢復情況以及韓國不利競爭狀態能否依靠公司能力實現反轉。

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