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大和:維持對內銀行業中性看法 首選仍是招行(3968.HK)
格隆匯 06-19 16:54

大和發表研究報告指,國務院敦促金融機構全年以降低利率、推遲償還貸款及削減費用,向各類企業合理讓利1.5萬億元人民幣,估計將對行業盈利的影響約為4%,並可能導致今年盈利零增長。

大和表示,今年首5個月的1年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調30基點,首季行業貸款收益率下降36基點。根據估算,今年企業的融資成本或削減50至60基點,這表明銀行將會進一步減息20至30基點,並認為6月20日將會進一步削減LPR

該行預計,措施將導致今年的收益增長為零。中小型銀行的利潤可能會減少,並可能會損害其支持經濟的能力,同時又預料政府未來將有更多的支持政策推出。

該行又指,內銀H股已作出負面反應,維持對行業中性看法,而首選仍然是招商銀行(3968.HK),相信銀行將會比國有銀行承擔更少的義務,同時亦將郵儲銀行(1658.HK)的評級上調至“買入”,認為銀行在當前的宏觀經濟環境下,處於相對有利的位置,並預計今年將實現優於同業的收入增長。

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