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高盛:讓利要求或令銀行受壓 惟被強勁資產增長抵銷
國務院早前公佈,要求銀行今年提供貼現利率貸款、減少向企業收取費用等,從而向實體經濟讓利1.5萬億元(人民幣,下同)的利潤。高盛發表研究報告認為,此舉可能會為銀行收入帶來壓力,但被銀行強勁的資產增長抵銷。因此,具充足流動性及資本的銀行,如郵儲銀行(1658.HK)、建設銀行(0939.HK)及寧波銀行(002142.SZ),都不受監管約束,可以推動強勁的資產增長。
高盛表示,該1.5萬億元將來自75%的銀行純利、24%的收入、35%的撥備前利潤(PPOP)、33%的貸款損失準備,以及9%的普通股權一級資本比率(CET1)。該行認為,鑑於潛在的利率下降可能會被較預期快的盈利資產增長所抵銷,因此銀行的收入今年仍將保持強勁增長,同時銀行的流動性及資本充足率之間的差異正在擴大。
該行又指,郵儲銀行、建行及寧波銀行或同時擁有自由的流動性及資本,可推動資產增長、抵銷淨息差下跌,以及支持PPOP的增長。
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