摩通:對香港樓市看法轉樂觀 上調今年住宅樓價預測至持平
摩根大通發表行業報告稱,近段負面消息及市場情緒均壓抑地產股的表現,惟該行對香港住宅市場看法轉趨樂觀,將今年樓價預測由原先的跌10%,上調至按年持平,並料有潛在上升空間,故將新地(0016.HK)及信和置業(0083.HK)投資評級,由中性上調至增持,同時維持長實地產(1113.HK)、新世界發展(0017.HK)及嘉裏建設(0683.HK)增持評級。
摩通提出6大理由來解釋,包括G3國家央行已擴表至金融海嘯高位的3倍、未見割價求售的賣家、資金流入令香港同業拆息降至新低,以及企業信心依舊,未有跨國公司撤離的跡象等。加上一、二手交投量分別達8年及1年高位,認為是買入住宅業務較多發展商的好時機。
該行又指,維持今年店鋪租金下跌20%的預測,同時在其模型中考慮了4個月50%的租金減免優惠,而遊客區商場租金如海港城等的租金則料跌25%,故選擇性挑選零售收租,分別予恆隆地產(0101.HK)、希慎(0014.HK)及領展(0823.HK)增持評級,同時將九龍倉置業(1997.HK)由中性上調至增持。
然而,摩通持續看淡寫字樓市場前景,儘管相關板塊估值已極度低迷,惟認為市場復甦緩慢,並進一步下調中環區甲級寫字樓租金至跌25%,將太古地產(1972.HK)評級由增持下調至中性。
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