建筑行业数据点评：基建投资强势复苏，竣工需求快速释放，给予“中性”评级
机构：中银国际
评级：中性
国家统计局公布1-5月份固定资产投资数据，投资数据强势复苏，单月基建投资同比增速超过10%，高于地产投资，其中电力相关投资增速最快，交运与市政投资保持平稳。地产开工以及水泥相关数据受到降水影响有所回调，竣工数据复苏强劲，带动玻璃行业景气度快速提升。
投资数据：基建投资5月份增速达2018年以来高位，地产投资平稳复苏：5月份建筑行业投资相关数据持续复苏：基建投资完成额1.76万亿元，同增10.9%，单月增速达到2018年以来的最高水平。电热气水、交运邮储、公用水利三大基建分支行业分别完成投资额0.32、0.60、0.84万亿元，同比分别增长28.8%、11.2%、5.1%。铁路、公路、市政、水利四大基建二级行业投资额分别为0.077、0.45、0.11、0.66万亿元，同比分别增长7.4%、15.4%、6.7%、5.3%，公路和市政等以地方政府主导的投资项目增速有进一步提升。房地产开发投资完成额1.28万亿元，同增8.4%；其中建筑工程投资额0.71万亿元，同增9.3%，地产投资平稳复苏。合并地产与基建口径，建筑行业相关投资额合计为2.15万亿元，同增8.1%，也达到了2018年以来的高位。
施工数据：增速回升，竣工复苏力度更强劲：地产开工、竣工以及销售同比增速同样保持回升。5月份房地产新开工面积为2.18亿平，竣工面积0.44亿平，销售面积1.47亿平，同比增速分别为2.5%、6.2%、9.7%。相比之下，地产竣工和销售复苏力度更为强劲。一方面原因是5月份以来南方洪涝灾害影响施工进展，另一方面是2019年底以来竣工本应进入复苏周期，疫情后竣工需求集中释放，复苏力度更强劲。
水泥数据：雨水天气导致行业景气度下降，西部地区景气度改善：近期随着南方地区持续降水，建筑行业施工受到较严重影响，早周期建材板块包括防水、水泥、减水剂等表现较弱。具体到水泥行业基本面数据表现为熟料库容比快速提升，从5月初的52%提升到当前接近60%的水平；磨机开工率下降，从原来的68%下降到65%，行业景气度指数回调。相比之下，西北和西南地区受到雨水天气影响较小，区域景气度表现相对较好。我们认为当前建筑行业施工需求依然存在，后续随着雨水天气逐步进入尾声，施工需求再度集中释放，水泥行业景气度将达到新高度。
玻璃数据：库存快速消化，行业复苏有望持续：玻璃行业受疫情冲击已接近尾声，风险逐步释放。随着竣工需求快速提升，部分厂商库存压力冲击下冷修产能增加，行业库存快速消化，玻璃产品价格快速提升。站在当前时点看，2019年平板玻璃底部反转行情的条件当前都具备，而目前平板玻璃单箱含税价平均为80元，尚未达到去年高点，本轮玻璃景气度复苏行情有望进一步持续。
建议当前从钢结构、竣工等方面关注建筑行业：考虑早周期施工受降水影响，相关板块公司出货受到影响。建议关注后周期施工板块相关标如平板玻璃龙头旗滨集团，受到降水影响较小的西部水泥龙头祁连山、天山股份；钢结构上市龙头鸿路钢构、富煌钢构等。
风险提示：南方降雨持续，竣工复苏疲软，钢结构渗透不及预期。
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