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《大行報告》中金:內房H股下半年看好融創、旭輝、潤地及中國海外等
阿思達克 06-18 14:23
中金發表報告指,判斷今年下半年內地房地產行業基本面穩中向好,政策面延續平穩溫和窗口,疊加板塊估值及倉位處歷史底部,看好下半年A/H地產股的配置價值。

該行建議投資者遵循三條主線選股,包括土儲具規模、增長具質量的H股推薦融創(01918.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)、潤地(01109.HK)、中海外(00688.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)、世茂(00813.HK)、金茂(00817.HK);業務有特色、增長有韌性的推薦龍光(03380.HK)、時代中國(01233.HK);及物管內涵價值突出的房企如融創、潤地、世茂、合景泰富(01813.HK)等。

此外,該行持續看好物業管理板塊,推薦增長動能強且持續性強的優質公司,首推永昇生活服務(01995.HK)和碧桂園服務(06098.HK),其次推薦雅生活(03319.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK)。

中金認為,疫情期間實現較好防守的房企,下半年可乘勢而上。年初至今龍頭房企憑藉土儲、資金等核心資源優勢實現了較好防守,下半年伴隨市場恢復平穩,由操盤能力分化等帶動的集中度提升仍是主旋律。該行認為覆蓋房企下半年供應放量將帶動銷售動能持續恢復,穩步達成全年平均約10%的銷售增長目標。銷售端利潤率下探空間有限,其中優質項目將更早看到企穩恢復,預計今明兩年報表利潤率平穩向下。而房企追竣工勢頭不減,中報盈利料大體持平,全年盈利雙位數增長可期。

該行維持對行業個股盈利預測和目標價不變,並指「兩會」後地產股自底部有所反彈,然而目前板塊估值及倉位仍低,投資者增長預期修復將持續驅動價值回歸。該行覆蓋的A/H地產股交易於5.8倍/6.5倍今年市盈率,距離去年4月高點仍有逾20%上行空間;平均股息收益率分別為5.6%/5.9%,處於歷史高位。雖然短期情緒面可能仍面臨外圍環境及國內局部地區疫情反覆擾動,但房地產作為純內需品類,結合估值優勢,看好板塊下半年風險收益。

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