植耀輝: 港股走勢續反覆 美團走勢強因行業併購
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，港股六月走勢相當絕，月初滿以為反彈可延續，但隨著多地出現疑似第二波爆發，投資者對經濟是否能復甦亦變得較以往更審慎，令港股本週大上大落，但預期暫仍會於23,500-24,500點水平上落。反而美股已重回高位，納指更破萬點關口，若最終復甦憧憬破滅，美股回落只是時間問題。當然，美國總統特朗普為競選連任，將用盡所有手段去刺激經濟或轉移視線，但最擔心是當地疫情不受控，那全球政經局勢將繼續受到消息左右。
另外，市場焦點仍離不開中概股行情。京東(09618.HK)不論在上市編號及上市日期(剛巧為618購物節)皆頗有心思，無奈市況又見逆轉，表現如何難以預計。不過，美國上市之中概股部分近期卻異常波動，個別更試過單日急升10多倍！例如房多多便試過一日之間因暴升關係而出現14次熔斷！
至於急升原因，大部分應該與炒作有關，上文提到之房多多，便有指是憧憬被收購有關(亦有一無稽說法指因房多多與拼多多名字相近，而被人錯誤炒作)。但有一個不爭事實，自瑞幸咖啡涉嫌造假後，美國證監會對中概股的態度已有明顯改變，加上上月美國參院通過《外國公司問責法》，要求外國公司證明其不受外國政府所擁有或控制，亦令更多中概股有意回A或到港作第二上市。只是個別股份如斯急升，實在令人感到不安；而且筆者亦相信，即使有第二上市憧憬，然而若公司基本面欠奉，港交所(00388.HK)或有關當局亦未必會輕易「放行」。所以投資者炒作亦須特別小心。
提到急升股份，那怎可以不提美團點評(03690.HK)？此股近數個交易日雖見調整，但截至昨日計年內仍累升達69%，市值更已突破萬億港元。當然，疫情下居民消費模式出現改變，令其外賣速送業務生意有可觀增長，而疫情見好轉亦令其到店、酒店及旅遊業務出現反彈，只是股價升幅實在驚人，而且交易用戶數目及每位交易用戶平均每年交易筆數增速均見回落，所以近期急升，筆者認為是有其他因素支持。而同業併購消息，可能才是股價強勢之最大支持。
內地速送行業發展至今，已演變成由美團及餓了麼之爭。相比之下，歐美等地仍處於群雄割據局面，競爭大之餘亦帶來併購機遇。上週總部位於荷蘭之Just Eat Takeaway便宣布，以73億美元收購美國速送市場「二哥」Grubhub。有大行便因此預期，基於中國是全球最大市場，認為美團點評在內地行業中具良好結構增長趨勢之餘，再用今次作價推算，美團每股價值便達到220.58元！
那美團股價會否再升？筆者相信隨著5G來臨，大型企業在發展上將有更大優勢，特別是擁有AI及大數據分析力之公司。故「ATM」未來仍值得看高一線，只是現價高追實在缺乏十足信心，故寧待回調時始再作考慮矣！
筆者持有阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股份~
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