周黑鴨(1458.HK)延續強勢大漲超8%!業務模式受機構頻頻看好
6月17日,周黑鴨(1458.HK)延續強勢行情,現漲超7%,報6.30港元,最新總市值150億港元。
值得注意的是,其股價自6月以來累計漲幅超50%,且時隔近兩年重回6港元上方。

來源於:Wind
而究及這一漲勢的原因,除了受到武漢本地股概念的驅動,還是在於:隨着疫情日趨平穩,其業務的復甦腳步不斷加快,進而受到了多家券商的看好。
首先,根據武漢市衞生健康委員會消息,目前武漢市無新增無症狀感染者,無尚在醫學觀察的密切接觸者,至此,武漢市無症狀感染者及其密切接觸者全部清零。
而或繼續受此消息的利好,在A股市場,武漢概念漲勢明顯,其中,盛天網絡漲超9%,領漲板塊,華中數控、海特生物、中船應急、高德紅外等個股有所拉昇。

來源於:Wind
同時,雖然疫情的打擊對周黑鴨產生一定的負面影響,但基於疫情整體趨緩,再加上其線上業務不斷擴容,例如通過直播帶貨等方式,其業務的成長性受到了相關券商的青睞,也或將改善目前業績的不如意。
回顧其財報,可以發現上一年其業績表現陷入了一定的頹勢。2019年周黑鴨全年收入達到31.86億元,同比下降0.8%。其中,周黑鴨門店收益27.4億元,佔總營收的86%,而自營門店收益減少3590萬元,分銷商收益減少5220萬元;實現歸母淨利潤4.07億元,同比下降24.56%;公司擁有人應占溢利4.07元,同比下降24.6%。
同時,根據相關數據顯示,在疫情期間,此前周黑鴨與央視、淘寶直播薇婭等在內共進行了5場直播帶貨,銷售170萬盒產品,帶動了4月-5月同比增長2.3倍的電商銷售額。此外,618購物節即將到來,周黑鴨6月份的銷量或受到一定的樂觀預期。
瑞信指出,周黑鴨(1458.HK)去年底所推行的特許經營模式成為主要增長動力,可減輕商鋪運營成本壓力,並推動分店網絡擴張,將評級由原先“跑輸大市”調升至“跑贏大市”。雖然目前疫情阻礙發展計劃,但在周黑鴨積極發佈新產品、線上線下全渠道覆蓋及市場整合等多項戰略改革下,將2020年盈利預測削減54%,但將2021年盈利預測提升44%,目標價由2.4港元上調至7港元,相當於2021年預測市盈率27倍。
里昂認為,周黑鴨整體線下銷售正在復甦,估計交通樞紐的店鋪流量已復甦20%至30%,且認為其線上平台銷售強勁,加上有其他來自特別渠道的收入來源,例如是便利店等,部分抵銷售傳統線下渠道的弱勢,公司3月份於超市及便利店推出真空包裝產品,而管理層目標是在不同的連鎖店內推出多元化產品,以滿足客户的需求,也會改善包裝等供應予擁冷鏈系統的渠道。考慮到特許經營申請者眾及現有特許經營店向好等因素,對公司的經營模式信心增加,重申‘買入’評級,目標價由5.4元升至5.7元,並提升了對公司的特許經營店開店預測,估計將於2021至2022年有所加快。
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