《大行报告》高盛升中芯(00981.HK)目标价至23元 指不计华为订单 长线前景仍巩固
高盛发表报告表示,该行近月透过半导体的供应链渠道了解後,重新调整对中芯国际(00981.HK)旗下客户组合假预,包括评估其短期及长期发展影响,重申对中芯「确信买入」名单,维持「买入」评级,未来12个月目标价由22元上调23元,此相当预测市账率2.1倍,对其估值预测延伸至2022年。
该行指最新对中芯预测模型,已假设来自华为旗下海思半导体於今年第四季业务为零收入,及对公司长期发展维持建设性的看法,因料中芯旗下先进技术应用於收入占比,可由今年首季仅1%,可在2021年及2022年恢复各至15%及77%(已假设损失华为订单因素),可受惠旗下紫光展锐贡献,及受惠於应用在FPGA(现场可编程式阵列)、特殊应用集成电路、数位信号处理供应商应用12/14奈米技术应用,料中芯至2025年半导体总体有效市场(total available market, TAM)的单位需求会大於华为需求最少3倍,而内地本地客户包括上海韦尔半导体、北京兆易创新、中兴微电子等。
高盛估计,中芯长线可维持产能增长计划,料2020年至2025年资本开支复合增长率6%。该行料中芯旗下华为收入占比约19%,原先估计来自华为先进技术12/14奈米技术应用占比各31%及69%,但该行最新预测今年第四季起来自华为订单为零,并相信其他客户订单可逐步抵销相关影响,料至2022年第四季其他客户订单将可完全抵销华为的影响。该行亦下调对中芯2020年至2022年纯利预测各8%、39%及15%。(wl/u)
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