特步國際(01368.HK)：5月主品牌恢復勢頭良好，KSGB海外業務承壓，維持“增持”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：增持
投資要點
5月主品牌流水回正，恢復勢頭良好。從近期調研中我們瞭解到，受益5月包括五一假期、55購物節、520等節假日及大型活動促進，公司特步主品牌5月表現良好，折扣則恢復至約7折（Q1為6.5-7.0折），庫銷比也恢復到5-5.5個月（Q1為5.5個月），零售恢復勢頭良好，預計年底渠道庫存可恢復到正常時期水平（4個月左右）。5月渠道零售陸續恢復，公司亦通過允許Q1換貨、延長總代理賬期等方式支援渠道，並積極通過多種線上新渠道抓住銷售機會，預計2020年特步品牌收入高單位數下降，考慮促銷及退貨帶來的毛利率下降，預計利潤端降幅在三成左右。
多品牌發展：海外疫情蔓延，KSGB海外業務承受壓力；JV業務穩步開展中：
1）KSGB：K-SWISS品牌是未來4-5年的發展重點。2019/8/1特步以自有資金2.6億美金（約合17.5億人民幣）全資自韓國衣戀集團收購E-LandFootwearUSA（簡稱KSGB），從而取得K-Swiss、Palladium、Supra等品牌的全球業務所有權。2019年KSGB的並表為集團帶來了4.66億人民幣收入，同時帶來了將近1億元一次性費用（包括3600萬法務及中介費用、1000萬裁員產生相關的費用、5000萬以低於賬面價值出售Supra庫存及相關資產減值帶來的費用）。
2020年KSGB全年並表，但由於疫情在全球的蔓延，KSGB的生意將受到影響，其大部分為批發業務，春夏訂單總體發貨正常但秋冬訂單面臨壓力，預計全年收入將有所下滑，並伴有一定的經營虧損，仍需要觀察海外疫情後續發展帶來的影響。Palladium持續在大中華區以分銷及自營模式開店，K-SWISS品牌則在重新定位和發展的投入期，全新的形象店在品牌重塑後將率先在中國開業。
2）JV層面：通過合營公司引入明星品牌，佈局慢跑及户外領域。2019/3/4，公司公告與美國著名鞋業集團WolverineWorldWide開設合資公司（各持股50%），經營慢跑品牌Saucony及高端户外Merrell兩大品牌中國內地及港澳業務，目前Saucony及Merrell線上渠道已經開始運營，Saucony線下首店已在5月開業，Merrell首店亦將在Q4面世，2020年預計兩品牌合計開店30-50家，由此測算線上線下合計收入貢獻5000萬元，同時由於品牌發展初期主要以直營形式開店，投入較多，2020年預計兩品牌虧損6000-8000萬元（但特步持股50%，故影響報表利潤3000-4000萬元）。
盈利預測與投資評級：我們預期公司20/21/22年收入同比-3.0%/+14.0%/+11.4%至79.4/90.5/100.8億元，歸母淨利同比-45%/+46%/+23%至4.0/5.9/7.2億元，對應當前PE為15.5/10.6/8.6X，出於對國內及海外疫情的謹慎觀望，維持“增持”評級。
風險提示：1）新冠病毒肺炎疫情影響零售;2）初涉多品牌運作需要磨合;3）新品牌培育的風險。
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