波司登(03998.HK)：經營韌性強，發展潛力大，看好公司未來二次起跳，給予“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：（本文如無特殊説明，貨幣單位均為人民幣）
公司是國內最大的羽絨服企業，擁有波司登、雪中飛等知名品牌。其中，波司登品牌羽絨服連續 24 年（1995-2018 年）全國銷量領先。公司自 2018/19 財年迴歸創業初心，明確“聚焦主航道、聚焦主品牌、收縮多元化”的戰略目標，業績成效顯著，羽絨服業務持續快速增長。
公司過去三個財年營收和歸母淨利潤分別複合年均增長 21.59%和65.10%。2019/20 財年上半年營收和歸母淨利潤分別增長 28.8%和36.4%。2019/20 財年前九個月品牌羽絨服業務下波司登主品牌零售金額同比增長 30%+。（財年指每年的 4 月 1 日至次年的 3 月 31 日）
公司目前的三大關注點及我們的觀點。（1）今年冬季包括未來又遇到暖冬怎麼辦？得益於產品時尚度的大幅提升，包括加大優質快反核心競爭力建設，從過去五年看公司在暖冬的情況下業績波動明顯減弱，經營韌性顯著增強。（2）主品牌波司登賣的太貴，消費者不買單？從實際銷售情況看，提價並未對銷售構成負面影響。另一方面波司登品牌的提檔升級，給原先價格帶相差並不十分明顯的雪中飛，留出了足夠的發展空間。（3）公司未來持續增長的動力來自哪裏？除了雪中飛的成長，包括授出大額獎勵股份和購股權充分調動員工積極性外，主要來自渠道數量增加、電商佔比提升、單店店效提升和數字化轉型。
?羽絨服行業市場規模有望不斷擴大，競爭格局穩定，公司龍頭地位穩固。2018 年我國羽絨服市場規模約為 1068 億元。公司主品牌波司登1999 年起始終處於第一位。且近年成功進入 1000-5000 元價位市場。
19/20-21/22 財年預計 EPS 為 0.10 元/股、0.13 元/股、0.16 元/股。現價對應 20/21 財年 PE15 倍，參考可比公司平均估值，給予公司 20/21財年 26 倍 PE，合理價值 3.70 港元/股，首次給予“買入”評級。
風險提示。匯率波動的風險；商譽減值的風險；業務的風險。
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