中金:重申新奧能源(2688.HK)“跑贏行業”評級 目標價102港元
中金髮布研究報告,維持新奧能源(2688.HK)盈利預測和目標價102港元,對應16倍2020年市盈率,較當前股價具備9%上行空間,維持跑贏行業評級。
新奧能源管理層表示,2020年1季度公司售氣量同比下滑2%,但4月氣量同比增長8%,5月同比增速則進一步改善至10%。管理層預計6月售氣量或將實現中雙位數增長。公司維持全年核心利潤同比增長15%的指引不變,同時預計上半年核心利潤將同比增長10%。
中金指出,LNG進口價格仍處於低位,利好公司管控天然氣採購成本。受全球LNG供給寬鬆和油價較低影響, LNG進口價格仍處於低位。新奧能源2020年計劃利用集團公司的LNG碼頭資源進口約200萬噸LNG,年初至五月底已進口約72萬噸(其中40萬噸來自長協,32萬噸來自現貨)。公司表示,長協LNG到岸價格約為4-4.5美元/百萬英熱單位(約為1元/立方米),現貨LNG到岸價格約為2美元/百萬英熱單位(約為0.5元/立方米),兩者均遠低於公司平均門站價格1.8-2.0元/立方米。
泛能業務全年收入指引維持60-80億元不變,毛利率或達到15-20%。公司表示上半年綜合能源解決方案獲得了更多客户的認可,主要因為公司的解決方案幫助客户提升了能源效率,降低了能源使用成本。雖然部分施工項目受到公共衞生事件影響有所延期,管理層仍維持板塊全年60-80億元的收入目標不變。此外,公司預計泛能業務毛利率將受益於當前較低的天然氣價格,全年或將達到15-20%。
中金認為,增值服務業務有望實現全年30億元的收入目標。公共衞生事件期間,公司通過APP和線上銷售和服務等方式提升了線上銷售能力,因此1季度公司增值服務業務收入仍實現温和增長。

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