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中金:維持華潤燃氣(1193.HK)“跑贏行業”評級 目標價45港元
格隆匯 06-15 17:42

中金髮布研究報告,預計華潤燃氣(1193.HK)今年首4個月盈利同比下跌20%左右,或還將持續拖累1H20盈利。維持盈利預測與目標價45港元,對應18倍2020年市盈率,較當前股價具備9.5%上行空間,維持公司“跑贏行業”評級。

中金預計公司5月份的單月氣量同比增長5-6%,相比4月份的8-9%的同比增速有所放緩,主要原因是兩會期間,京津冀地區部分高速限行及工業關停,而公司在附近周邊城市比如天津等項目較多,受到的影響較大。預計今年首五個月公司氣量同比仍然下跌1-2%。中金指出,以上氣量數據均為管理口徑,不包含部分幾個較大的非財務並表的聯營公司,因此與最終財報披露的法定口徑略有出入。

中金預計,5月份接駁安裝工程雖然在趕工,但是前五個月居民新接駁仍然下跌超過20%以上,主要受到1Q20公共衞生事件的影響。不過,中金預計1H20公司仍然能夠取得正的氣量增長,6月份氣量會恢復到至少接近4月份的水平,同時部分聯營公司增速大於公司平均增速。

毛差同比提升,將抵消氣量的較弱趨勢。但1H20業績壓力主要來自接駁的量價齊跌。考慮到前五個月的新接駁仍然同比下降20%以上,同時預計1H20的接駁費單價在1H19的2730元/户(FY19 2710元/户)的基礎上也略有下浮,接駁業務今年上半年的量價齊跌是公司短期盈利的主要壓力。

中金指出,寧波項目近期完成交割,下一個催化劑為重慶、合肥、太原。管理層預計寧波項目將於7月10日之前完成交割,交易對價約為20億元,對應約20倍2019年市盈率。

中金稱,不排除公司將並表寧波項目半年業績(樂觀情形下或將全年並表)的可能性,具體利潤並表時間段將取決於交易協議,認為公司的併購外延的增長邏輯會隨着未來的幾個大項目持續落地而兑現。

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