《大行報告》中金對中資金融股下半年持「中性」看法 看好港交所及券商股等
中金發表報告指,在全球疫情總體趨緩、復工復產快速推進的背景下,該行首席經濟學家彭文生認為今年下半年會出現「全球漸進復甦」的趨勢;加之全球主要央行都進行大規模基礎貨幣投放,有利於權益類資產表現。相對而言,中國央行的應對政策比較謹慎,更多地通過金融行業積極、定向的信貸投放來托底實體經濟。
該行對下半年金融行業總體觀點「中性」,子板塊推薦順序為券商、保險及銀行,投資者需重點關注個股行情。具體而言,和資本市場相關的券商和交易所則將明確受益於市場集資規模增加和交投活躍,建議投資者重點關注;保險業新單銷售弱復甦,估值邊際受益於長端利率預期扭轉和權益類資產的表現,預計板塊有望出現估值修復,至於銀行業將持續面臨息差小幅收窄和不良壓力增加的挑戰,全年利潤增速中樞將下移至約3%,預計行業整體表現有限,需要重點布局個股。
中金預計,證券行業今年營收和利潤增速為7%和15%。在經濟轉型、資本市場改革穩步推進的背景下,新股融資節奏明顯加快,各項改革和試點工作也穩步推進。該行判斷,當前券商板塊正處於交投情緒向好的短期beta與市場改革深化的中期alpha共振的投資區間,且估值水平處於歷史低位。該行建議關注板塊估值修復行情,以及頭部券商長期估值溢價的提升,例如華泰證券(06886.HK)。
此外,該行又提到,港交所(00388.HK)顯著受益於ADR的加速回港上市,維持重點推薦,重申對其「跑贏行業」評級及目標價317元。中金認為,在新的國際形勢以及中概股美股上市環境不明朗的背景下,港交所將成為中概股回歸以及境內企業海外上市的受益者。以阿里(09988.HK)為例,今年以來阿里在港股的日均股票交易額佔比達3.8%,預計若美股現有中概股公司中30%選擇港股二次上市、平均融資攤薄比例10%、上市後日均換手率1.5%,則有望增厚港交所今年約3%的淨利潤。隨著未來中概股及同股不同權公司進一步納入互聯互通,預計南下交易額仍有望進一步提升。
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