《大行报告》麦格理首予美团点评(03690.HK)「跑赢大市」评级 目标价210元
麦格理发表的研究报告指,物流网络的「最後一里」是带动外卖及快消品电商业务的基石,而美团在相关范畴正在积极发展,相信未来四至五年美团(03690.HK)将可利用其网络,在市场上拥有较强地位,并受惠食品服务数码化、日用品快递等机遇,并预期股份有两个主要的增长引擎,包括是核心外卖派递业务收入及盈利增长改善,以及公司铺路进驻2B及2C的食品服务道,认为公司在2020至2024财年收入及EBITDA的年复合增长可分别达44%及83%,首予目标价210元,评级「跑赢大市」。
该行认为今年内地餐饮市场规模将达4.9万亿元人民币(下同),而外卖渗透率将达15%,当中美团以交易额计市场份额达66%,该行估计到2024财年前美团在食物服务分销的市场份额可增7%,而外卖送餐方面的市场占有率则维持在65%的水平。麦格理认为到2024财年前,公司的核心外卖送餐业务及相关的服务业务将值1,070亿美元,而食物服务分销业务则值520亿美元。
该行相信在未来数季行内竞争将加深,阿里(09988.HK)亦将支付宝放入其服务扩张策略中,并期望在今年下半年及明年增加市场份额,该行估计两大巨头在食品服务市场上的竞争将加快行业数码化等,料美团与商户及客户等有较强关系,而其「最後一里」的快递网络将有助维持公司在送餐业务的市场份额。
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