You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
藥明康德(02359.HK):全方位一站式醫藥研發生產外包服務提供商,給予“增持”評級,目標價104.1港元
格隆匯 06-12 14:36

機構:中泰證券

評級:增持

目標價:104.1港元

中國最大的一站式醫藥研發生產外包服務提供商

公司在藥品與醫療器械研發生產外包服務領域擁有領先的行業地位,根據按照弗若斯特沙利文報告,2018年收入計算,是中國最大的醫藥研發生產服務提供商。公司業務範圍非常廣闊,涵蓋小分子藥物一站式研發、細胞與基因療法項目研發及醫療器械測試等。公司主要管理層由經驗豐富的科學家組成,截止2019年底研發人員達約17,872人,研發能力非常強大。公司業務範圍涉及全球,將受益於全球優質創新藥、先進療法及醫療器械市場的廣闊需求。

四大引擎將帶動收入高增長,預計2019-22E收入CAGR為25.7%

我們認為,公司中國實驗室、小分子藥物CDMO/CMO服務、細胞與基因療CDMO業務三大引擎將引領收入高增長,2019-22E收入CAGR將高達25.7%。由於全球藥物發現市場需求廣闊,我們預計中國實驗室業務2019-22E將達25.5%.公司在手小分子化學藥物CDMO項目數量將從2019年底的994種增加到2022年的1,654種,其中收費較高的2&3期臨牀和商業生產項目數量佔比將從約23.9%增加到33.9%,導致小分子藥物CMO/CDMO業務2019-22ECAGR將高達28.5%。細胞與基因治療將引領美國實驗室業務穩定增長,預計美國實驗室業務收入2019-22ECAGR為21.2%。臨牀試驗現場管理(SMO)等需求將帶動臨牀試驗及其他CRO業務2019-22E收入CAGR達23.2%。

“長尾”戰略成效顯著,多樣性業務提升服務吸引力

公司業務範圍廣闊,尤其是小分子藥物與細胞基因療法CDMO業務提供一站式服務,導致客户粘性越來越強。公司實施“長尾”戰略,提供全面及定製化服務以滿足不斷增長的初創公司及中小型製藥公司的需求。長尾”戰略導致公司客户總數從2015年底的2,633家增加到2019年底的3,900多家。公司業務較主要競爭對手更闊,是中國小分子藥物CDMO行業龍頭,也是全球少數能提供細胞與基因療法CDMO業務的公司,多樣性業務提升服務吸引力。

預計Non-IFRS經調整淨利潤2019-22ECAGR為21.5%

我們預計公司2019-22E股東淨利潤CAGR為27.4%,反映核心業務盈利的Non-IFRS經調整淨利潤的2019-22ECAGR為21.5%,將維持較快增長。

首次覆蓋並給予“增持”評級,目標價104.1港元

考慮到公司業務為持續性業務且現金流穩定,我們使用DCF估值法。目標價定為104.1港元,對應73.1倍2021EPER,較目前股價有17.6%上漲空間,給予“增持”評級。

風險提示:(一)新冠肺炎病毒影響大於預期;(二)項目進展和獲取新項目慢於預期。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account