呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)：業績短期承壓，疫情後經營逐漸復甦，給予“買入”評級
機構：東北證券
評級：買入
事件：
呷哺呷哺發佈2019年年報，2019年公司實現營收60.30億元/+27.4%，歸母淨利潤2.88億元/-37.7%，不計及IFRS16等影響，經調整歸母淨利潤為3.96億元/-16.6%。
點評：
營收快速增長，利潤有所下滑。收入端：2019年公司實現營收60.3億元/+27.4%，主要系公司快速擴張門店所致；其中呷哺呷哺餐廳實現營收46.7億元/+14.5%，實現營收12.0億元/+116.0%，營收佔比已達到20%。成本端：原材料及耗材成本：佔公司收入比為36.9%/-0.8pct，顯示出公司較強的供應鏈管理能力。員工成本：佔公司收入比為25.6%/+0.9pct，主要系門店擴張和員工薪酬提升所致。租金和折舊攤銷成本：佔公司收入比為18.1%/+1.2pct，主要由於門店擴張和新的會計準則影響。財務費用：佔公司收入比為1.6%/+1.6pct，主要系實施IFRS16確認的利息開支。利潤端：2019年公司實現歸母淨利潤2.88億元/-37.7%，淨利率為4.82%/-4.94pct。
門店穩步擴張，單店營收略有下滑。2019年公司新開門店243家，其中新開呷哺呷哺門店189間/+12.5%，新開門店54間/+100%，呷哺呷哺關店53間。2019年公司整體單店收入為457萬元/-1%，同店單店收入為442萬/-1.4%，客單價為55.8元/+4.7%，翻座率為2.6/-7.1%。
投資建議：中短期看湊湊和呷哺呷哺門店擴張，長期看外賣和零售業務。今年疫情對餐飲行業短期業績影響在所難免，但公司充分發揮火鍋賽道龍頭優勢，擴大外賣業務，積極應對疫情衝擊。預計公司2020-2022年營收分別為56/87/102億，歸母淨利潤分別為0.41/5.68/6.90億，對應2021年PE為14倍。給予公司2021年20倍估值，目標42.9%的上漲空間。首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：宏觀經濟風險，食品安全風險，疫情繼續擴散風險。
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