《大行報告》瑞信:外送巨企併購作價反映2024年收入可增24% 指美團達相同增速 料每股估值逾220元
就荷蘭餐飲外送服務業者Just Eat Takeaway宣布,以合共73億美元(約566億港元)換股交易,收購美國外送平台Grubhub,瑞信發表報告,指Just Eat Takeaway與Grubhub合併後,將會成為中國地區以外按成交總額(GMV)及收入計算全球最大型的餐飲外送服務商,按其估算,美團點評(03690.HK)旗下成交總額及收入是全球同業約2倍。
瑞信表示,美團點評自今年3月底位至今已大幅抽升,及明顯跑贏恆指同期表現,相信是公司季度業績勝預期,內地城市在疫情解封後涉餐飲外送服務復甦所推動。就荷蘭餐飲外送服務商Just Eat Takeaway收購美同業Grubhub,以每股75.15美元作價,此反映預測公司至2024年銷售增長可達24%、EBITDA毛利率可達11%。
該行指,按美團目前股價水平,反映公司至2022年收入增長預測可達19%,毛利率達到市場同業預期13%水平。假設Just Eat Takeaway收購Grubhub交易,是反映全球餐飲外送服務的整合趨勢,基於中國是全球最大的市場,認為美團點評在內地行業中具良好結構增長趨勢。
瑞信認為,美團有能力將銷售增長至2024年達到24%,此幅度相當於Just Eat Takeaway收購Grubhub今次作價估值預算,相信美團點評此情境預測之下(按HOLT估值模式,非基本情境預測)每股估值可達220.58元。
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