5月金融数据综述：金融机构或已率先进行杠杆去化
机构：招商证券
全市场权威债务、杠杆数据解读，只有债务周期不会说谎！
基本结论：
第一，实体部门5月末债务余额同比增速录得12.5%，连续第三个月大幅攀升，前值11.9%。结构上来看，地方债带动政府部门债务余额增速大举上行，非金融企业负债增速亦有上升，家庭负债增速则小幅下降。考虑到宏观杠杆率的约束以及一些高频数据，我们倾向于认为，5月末实体部门负债增速已经触顶，6月将出现小幅下滑。
第二，具体来看，家庭部门负债增速小幅下降至13.8%，前值13.9%；其中中长期贷款余额增速19.7%，略低于前值19.9%，短期贷款余额同比降幅收敛至1.4%，前值同比下降1.8%。政策层面“房住不炒”的指导目标未变，我们仍然倾向于判断，家庭部门债务余额增速未来会震荡下行，向名义GDP增速靠拢，对应房地产弱周期。
第三，政府部门负债增速在5月大幅上升至14.6%，前值13.1%，主要来自于地方债的拉动。现有高频数据显示，6月末政府负债增速大概率趋于下行。
第四，非金融企业负债增速5月进一步上升至11.1%，前值10.6%，上升幅度有所收敛；从结构上来看，各项融资余额增速都有上升，贷款余额增速仍上升幅度最小，不过中长期贷款余额增速上升幅度超过短期和票据。5月PPI环比下降0.4%，同比降幅进一步扩大至3.7%，虽然6月开始有望逐步恢复，但弹性可能有限。因此，市场化程度高的非金融企业难有加杠杆的意愿，甚至更倾向于选择杠杆去化，5月大幅增加杠杆的行为或仍主要来自于市场化程度较低的非金融企业（主要是国有企业）。
第五，金融机构方面，还需后续数据验证，但根据现有数据，5月货币政策或开始转向收敛，并引导金融机构进行杠杆去化（负债增速下行），后续大概率仍将保持边际收敛状态，配合引导金融机构和实体部门负债增速逐步下行。
第六，资产配置方面，在上述背景下，不考虑资本跨境流动产生的冲击，经济处于一种类似过热的状态（经济向上、政策不松），债券收益率已开始进入趋势上行的通道（虽然最近或有超跌），而杀估值的负面影响最终会拖累权益市场进入下行区间。
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