植耀輝: 納指破萬點關口創歷史 網易(09999.HK)可作中長線持有
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(10日)個別發展。美國聯儲局結束一連兩日貨幣政策會議,一如市場預料,聯邦基金利率維持在0至0.25厘之間不變,並將持續至2022年。不過投資者仍關注經濟前景,道指連續第二個交易日下跌,收報26,989點,下跌282或1.04%,標普 500 指數亦下跌17點或0.53%,收報3,190點。至於納指則在蘋果公司及Amazon破頂下,上升66點或 0.67%,收報10,020點,歷史性地首度於萬點以上收市。
對經濟前景看法方面,聯儲局預期,今年經濟將收縮6.5%,年底失業率為9.3%;明年經濟則會出反彈,恢復增長5%,失業率將回落至6.5%。通脹方面,聯儲局預計今年通脹率為0.8%,明年將升至1.6%。
港股方面,昨日未能延續升勢,於競價時間微跌7點。當然,以跌幅而言並不多,但昨日所見除了騰訊(00700.HK)有較佳表現外,不少股份特別是早前急升之本地地產股及金融相關股皆見回吐,故今日要加倍留意相關股份表現。不過,始終大市已累升不少,加上25,500點阻力大,故預期港股將於24,500至25,000點先行整固。
今日焦點肯定是網易(09999.HK)上市。論前景筆者對其看法亦正面,不過預期今日升幅未必太多,畢竟作為第二上市,股價表現與美國ADS不會有太大偏離,事實上以昨日美股收市價計,網易折合港股約132.59元,較123元上市價有約8%溢價,故預期今日網易將有望上試130港元水平。筆者建議持貨者可考慮作中長線持有。
另外,昨日以騰訊為首之一眾手遊相關股亦被炒起,唯個別如博雅互動(00434.HK)及雲遊(00484.HK)等缺乏基本因素支持,故不建議吸納;至於騰訊股價破頂,但升幅實在頗驚人,慎防今日出現調整壓力,故雖然騰訊前景理想,惟未持貨者不妨待回落5-10%再作部署。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有Amazon股份)~
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