方正證券首予網易(09999.HK)「推薦」評級 目標價177.27元
方正證券近日發表報告表示，首予網易(09999.HK)「推薦」評級，予港股目標價177.27元，此採用公司自由現金流(FCFF)估值法。此報告聚焦以下問題，包括網易的戰略、速度與邊界，網易的組織架構，網易為何成為MMO(大型多人在線角色扮演遊戲)/RPG(角色扮演遊戲)遊戲市場龍頭，網易手遊發展核心驅動力及組織架構，網易遊戲出海優勢及空間測算，網易嚴選作為精品電商的業務模式和核心優勢，網易雲音樂的商業模式，網易雲音樂會員規模及收入規模測算，網易有道發展戰略等。
該行指，網易精耕MMO/RPG遊戲領域，公司2019年在MMO手遊市場市佔率達33%，擁有較高競爭壁壘：網易是國產RPG網遊的領軍者，研發運營經驗積累深厚，於2002、2003年推出《大話西遊Online II》、《夢幻西遊》端遊，運行時間長達18及17年，成為遊戲史上超長線運營的代表，至今《夢幻西遊》、《大話西遊》等IP仍具備旺盛生命力。網易奉行打磨精品的理念，契合MMO類產品研發門檻高的要求，疊加玩法的不斷創新優化、品牌和游戲IP營銷的配合，網易在MMO/RPG遊戲領域擁有較高競爭壁壘。
方正證券指，網易手遊三大驅動力—，即第一是端轉手、第二是重磅IP橫向衍生多款產品及第三是新IP不斷產出，經典端遊IP儲備豐富，端轉手表現強勁，包括《夢幻西遊端遊》轉為《夢幻西遊手遊》(長期位居IOS遊戲暢銷TOP5)、《大話西遊端遊》轉為《大話西遊手遊》(長期位居IOS游戲暢銷榜TOP20)；注重遊戲IP的橫向產品多元開發，強化IP品牌及變現能力，典型代表：繼《陰陽師》手遊成為爆款之後，據陰陽師IP開發包括《決戰！平安京》《陰陽師：百聞牌(CCG)》《陰陽師：妖怪屋(模擬遊戲)》等多品類遊戲產品。而新手遊IP不斷產出，包括《荒野行動》、《率土之濱》、《明日之後》等。
該行預測網易於2020財年至2022財年營收預測分別為682.72億人民幣、778.16億人民幣及865.61億人民幣，通用會計準則純利分別為140.81億人民幣、166.85億人民幣及188.20億人民幣，對應預測市盈率分別為29.63倍、25倍及22.17倍。根據不同業務板塊的盈利能力和競爭格局(給予相應溢價/折價)，進行綜合方式作估值，則遊戲、有道(網易持股部分)、電商、在線音樂業務合理估值分別為4,755億人民幣、253億人民幣、128億人民幣及435億元人民幣。
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