植耀輝: 美股再升還看鮑老言論 港股急升或須回氣
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，美股走勢之強實在令人嘖嘖稱奇。令人不解的是，美國當前正面對疫情及騷亂事件，但除了疫情爆發初期所帶來之震盪外，其後已見不到有太大衝擊。但原來這並非個別例子。1999年美國總統克林頓遭到彈劾，以至2011年佔領華爾街抗議行動，當時亦未見對美股帶來影響。只是今次疫情衝擊恐怕較以往事件更深遠。本周聯儲局議息會議後主席鮑威爾記者會之言論，應該會對當前經濟狀況有更多啟示。其言論會是「撥火」抑或稍為為美股降溫，很快便有分曉。
美股大幅反彈，按道理對當地經濟亦會起一定正面作用(美國經濟有七成靠內需)，但有研究卻指出，大部分美國人並未受惠今次之大升市。Pew Research Center在3月的一項調查發現，只有約14%美國家庭投資個股；另外，雖然上周五就業數據較預期理想，但16.3%失業率仍接近二戰後最高水平。
還有一個有趣統計跟大家分享。過去大家對美國消費者印象是「先使未來錢」，筆者在本欄亦曾分享過美國低儲蓄率及一般市民缺乏應急錢的情況，但近期卻一反常態。美國經濟分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的資料顯示，3月份美國儲蓄率環比上升5.1個百分點，升至13.1%，為1981年11月以來最高。儲蓄率高似乎是與償還貸款有關，但失業率高企以及經濟前景不明下，消費者勒緊褲頭的日子恐怕仍會持續，美國經濟要反彈，看來還是要先恢復消費信心矣!
當然最後亦要談談港股行情。恆指踏入6月份後連升七個交易日，累計上升近2,100點或9%。本輪上升的特點，在於「殘股大翻身」，一眾本地地產股及金融股出現報復式反彈，然而港股面對之不明朗因素仍多，所以現階段想追貨亦只宜小注。
另外，物管板塊出現配股潮，股價整體亦見調整。物管股「輕資產」概念，加上業務簡單及有穩定現金流，令其成為投資者熱炒之對象，但估值偏高卻是一個不爭事實。至於配股行動，筆者過去亦有提出公司上市其中一個原因在於籌集資金以助企業發展，故只要是用於業務發展或併購身上，其實亦無可厚非，特別是股價屢創新高之時。何況部分規模較少之物管公司，若要維持可觀增長以支持高估值，併購亦是無可避免，所以未來即使再有集資動作，筆者亦不會感到意外。亦因如此，筆者寧揀大型物管，貪其財務狀況相對理想之餘，未來發展亦有一定保證。故不妨待本輪調整完成後，分段吸納中海物業(02669.HK)、雅生活(03319.HK)及碧桂園服務(06098.HK)。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)~
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