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《大行报告》中金:内地债息反弹预期可驱动内险估值修复 看好国寿及新华保险
阿思达克 06-09 15:23
中金发表报告表示,继续看好低估值及高股息带中资保险股,推荐中国人寿(02628.HK)和新华保险(01336.HK),均予「跑赢行业」评级,予目标价各为23元及38元。该行亦重申看好友邦保险(01299.HK)增长前景,今年的短期挑战导致的股价调整提供了买入机会,予「跑赢行业」评级及目标价95元。

该行认为判断内险股未来六个月的投资机会的关键在於核心的估值驱动的变化。在当前阶段,市场认为保险股估处於历史低位,因此向下空间十分有限,而决定估值能否上行的核心驱动,首先是存量保单未来的盈利预期是否会有边际好转,即市场不再担心中国长端利率长期保持低位;第二是股票市场本身是否有反弹空间;第三是今年新业务的增速低点是否已过。

中金指,中国债券利率企稳反弹,内险股估值的核心变量出现扭转。由於首季度长端利率的快速下行,市场对於低利率的担忧持续压制保险股估值。该行认为市场高估了利率下行对於中国保险公司基本面的实际影响:对内险公司真正造成负面影响的是长端利率快速下行并长期(未来5-10年)保持低位,而这一情景发生可能性很低;随着第二季度中国经济活动恢复正常,长端利率保持低位的预期扭转,这将是驱动保险股估值修复的核心变量。

该行认为,内险股新业务增速低点已过,对「重疾」定义调整或带来阶段性高景气。该行预计今年下半年行业新业务增长弱复苏,新业务价值按年持平。疫情导致今年居民收入预期下降,间接抑制了近期保险需求,因此行业新单增长压力依然较大。由於今年首四月行业新业务的负增长已经推动市场下修了2020年增长预期,下半年增速低於预期可能性不大。中金预计今年第三季度新单增速会有阶段性高景气,可提振估值。

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