比亞迪股份(01211.HK)：新能源車佈局多年，加大產業鏈開放，給予“審慎增持”評級，目標價52.7港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：52.7港元
投資要點
新能源汽車全產業鏈的自主廠商：公司主要從事包含傳統新能源汽車及傳統燃油汽車在內的汽車業務、手機部件及組裝業務、二次充電電池及光伏業務，並積極拓展城市軌道交通業務領域。2019年公司年度實現新能源車219,353輛，燃油車231,893輛，公司市新能源車佔率保持行業領先，公司有完善的新能源車產業鏈，自供動力電池、電機電控系統等新能源車核心部件。
新能源車行業佈局多年：公司新能源車從2014年逐步打開市場，實現不斷的攀升，2018年達到高峯，為26.5萬輛，在中國市佔率一直保持領先地位，目前已經形成了王朝為主力，E系列同步發展的兩大品牌格局。?開放產業鏈，加大外供比例：公司在新能源車動力電池市場佈局最早，且以內供為主，導致市佔率逐步下降，2019年底公司動力電池產能為40GW，裝機量為10.75GW。2020年5月26日公司公告比亞迪半導體引進紅杉、中金、國投等領銜的14家投資者，合計增資19億元，取得比亞迪半導體20.2%的股權，投前估值75億元，投後估值96億元，後續預計會有新的戰投或者進行IPO，公司IGBT業務累計裝車60萬台，2019年公司戰略上從原先內部閉環體系轉變成對外銷售，逐步加大電池及IGBT等產品的外供比例，公司動力電池和IGBT外供市場潛力巨大。
我們的觀點：新能源車行業經過過去兩年的補貼退坡及疫情影響，導致近期的發展不理想，但是隨着國家出台進一步的支持政策，公司將重現增長。我們預計2020、2021和2022年公司收入分別為1478、1716和1980億元人民幣，歸母淨利潤分別為33.6、32和44.9億元人民幣。首次覆蓋比亞迪股份，予以“審慎增持”評級，目標價為52.7港元。
風險提示：1.疫情持續蔓延；2、汽車市場持續低迷；3、公司動力電池外及IGBT外供不及預期。
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