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《大行報告》中金:內地債息反彈預期可驅動內險估值修復 看好國壽及新華保險
阿思達克 06-09 15:23
中金發表報告表示,繼續看好低估值及高股息帶中資保險股,推薦中國人壽(02628.HK)和新華保險(01336.HK),均予「跑贏行業」評級,予目標價各為23元及38元。該行亦重申看好友邦保險(01299.HK)增長前景,今年的短期挑戰導致的股價調整提供了買入機會,予「跑贏行業」評級及目標價95元。

該行認為判斷內險股未來六個月的投資機會的關鍵在於核心的估值驅動的變化。在當前階段,市場認為保險股估處於歷史低位,因此向下空間十分有限,而決定估值能否上行的核心驅動,首先是存量保單未來的盈利預期是否會有邊際好轉,即市場不再擔心中國長端利率長期保持低位;第二是股票市場本身是否有反彈空間;第三是今年新業務的增速低點是否已過。

中金指,中國債券利率企穩反彈,內險股估值的核心變量出現扭轉。由於首季度長端利率的快速下行,市場對於低利率的擔憂持續壓制保險股估值。該行認為市場高估了利率下行對於中國保險公司基本面的實際影響:對內險公司真正造成負面影響的是長端利率快速下行並長期(未來5-10年)保持低位,而這一情景發生可能性很低;隨著第二季度中國經濟活動恢復正常,長端利率保持低位的預期扭轉,這將是驅動保險股估值修復的核心變量。

該行認為,內險股新業務增速低點已過,對「重疾」定義調整或帶來階段性高景氣。該行預計今年下半年行業新業務增長弱復蘇,新業務價值按年持平。疫情導致今年居民收入預期下降,間接抑制了近期保險需求,因此行業新單增長壓力依然較大。由於今年首四月行業新業務的負增長已經推動市場下修了2020年增長預期,下半年增速低於預期可能性不大。中金預計今年第三季度新單增速會有階段性高景氣,可提振估值。

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