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蒙牛乳業(2319.HK)大漲超6%!上半年業務收入或帶來積極性正增長
格隆匯 06-09 10:41

6月9日,蒙牛乳業大漲6.51%,截止目前漲至31.10港元,最新總市值1224億港元。

來源於:Wind

而究及這一漲勢,主要是來自業績端釋出的部分利好,即蒙牛上半年可比業務收入較去年同期有望實現正增長

回顧2019年業績,蒙牛營業收入達到790億元,同比增長14.6%;利潤達到41億元,同比增長34.9%;每股盈利1.049元,同比增長34.7%,毛利率較去年同期上升0.2個百分點,至37.6%。

而基於疫情原因,公司業務在一定程度上受到了負面影響,但隨着國內疫情的好轉,目前公司在全國的生產基地均已全面復工復產,現金流和庫存恢復到健康水平,整體運營恢復情況持續改善

根據今早蒙牛釋出的公告,預期集團2020年上半年度現有可比業務收入(不包括君樂寶及Bellamy)較去年同期實現正增長;但預期2020年上半年度公司擁有人應占利潤同比下降45%至60%。

來源於:官方公告

同時,繼去年收購澳洲有機嬰幼兒配方奶粉及嬰兒食品廠商貝拉米、澳資乳企Lion-Dairy & Drinks之後,蒙牛近期也加快了其收購腳步

5月20日,蒙牛通過子公司“蒙牛歐洲創新中心”對荷蘭SieveCorp Europe B.V.(以下簡稱“SieveCorp”)公司及其關聯公司的有形和無形資產實施併購。其中,收購SieveCorp公司的總對價為130萬歐元(現約合人民幣1046.72萬元),其或將對SieveCorp的過濾技術加以青睞,畢竟這一技術或對過濾後的液體能達到“幾乎無菌”的狀態,從而延長產品保質期並保留風味

對此,瑞信維持蒙牛乳業28.2港元的目標價,投資評級維持中性;

元大證券上調蒙牛乳業目標價,由33元上調36.2元,投資評級維持買入;

中金維持蒙牛乳業35.6元的目標價,投資評級是維持跑贏大市。

顯然,在疫情時期,隨着人們對健康意識的提升,可以提升免疫力的乳製品或將也受到矚目,再加上消費升級之下不斷被釋放的多元化需求,消費者對乳製品的需求將進一步增長,基於此,乳企朝着高質量發展的轉型升級是勢在必行的。

國金證券指出,公司積極應對疫情,雖有短期影響但不改長期發展邏輯。雖然疫情爆發較為突然,但公司應對及時,在多個方面進行調整:1)調整品牌營銷;2)賦能產業鏈;3)大力發展O2O、電商渠道。整體來看,疫情對公司的影響偏向短期(動銷放緩+各方面成本提升+非經營性支出較大),預計上半年將處於逐漸恢復狀態(二季度將恢復到90%以上)。公司反饋下半年將恢復正常,預計能夠實現雙位數增長。我們認為疫情不影響公司長期邏輯,長期仍然看好公司規模的擴張以及各項改革措施下利潤率的進一步修復。

天風證券表示,在海外疫情擴散引發的進口替代效應疊加產業鏈可持續轉型升級的背景下,行業成長空間依舊可期,乳製品板塊二季度或將迎來業績改善。此外,未來幾年隨着乳品品類多樣化、行業集中度將上升、巴氏奶滲透加快,看好品類擴張的乳品龍頭以及低温鮮奶市場。

 

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