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中金維持合景泰富(01813.HK)“跑贏行業”評級 上調目標價11%至15.04港元
格隆匯 06-08 15:37

6月3日,中金公司發佈報告,表示合景泰富(01813.HK)銷售額率先重拾增勢,物業管理業務邁入快車道,維持合景泰富盈利預測和“跑贏大市”評級,上調目標價11%至15.04港元。

重倉粵港澳大灣區和長三角地區,銷售進度領先同行

合景泰富2020年計劃推貨人民幣1,700億元,全年銷售目標為人民幣1,030億元。儘管上半年新推貨僅佔全年新貨的30-35%,中金預計上半年銷售額能達到人民幣380億元左右(同比增長5%),完成全年目標的37%。同時,中金預計合景泰富年初至今銷售毛利率維持在30%以上。

城市更新業務進展順利

合景泰富在2019年底已簽約26個城市更新項目,潛在可售資源達人民幣5,850億元,且項目聚焦廣州、佛山和深圳。中金預計今年下半年深圳的一個項目能夠開始供貨,且廣州的三個項目已在今年初啟動拆遷,預計可在明年釋放約人民幣100億元的可售貨值。

物業管理業務邁入快車道

中金預期合景泰富除自身項目交付以外,也將通過積極在廣東和浙江進行收併購來實現在管面積的擴張。同時,公司也計劃積極拓展增值服務,尤其是通過“一合”平台為商業地產提供增值服務。因此,中金預計2020年物管板塊盈利增速為40-50%,由此在保守假設下估計板塊公允價值分攤至當前流通股對應的每股價值約為2.0港元。

維持盈利預測和“跑贏大市”評級,上調目標價11%至15.04港元

物業開發銷售重拾增速,物業管理板塊價值釋放為價值重估提供額外催化劑,中金維持合景泰富盈利預測和“跑贏大市”評級,並上調目標價11%至15.04港元。

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