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《大行報告》中金:OPEC+延長減產至7月底 看好中海油服(02883.HK)及上石化(00338.HK)
阿思達克 06-08 11:00
就OPEC+(油組與夥伴國)會議聲明,OPEC+國家同意將日均970萬桶的原油減產規模延長一個月至7月底,中金發表報告表示,從國際原油價格周五的大幅上漲表現來看,本次會議的增量減產信息已經被市場提前反映,並沒有太多超出市場預期的地方。

該行認為,在目前油價位置,中國的上游勘探開發行業仍然是全行業虧損,主要考慮到總體較高的原油完全成本。但是對於國內完全成本最低的中海油(00883.HK)來說,該行預計當前油價已經接近其盈虧平衡線,並且中海油仍然有實現2025年產量目標的要求。因此,對於中海油服(02883.HK)而言,隨著中海油今年的資本開支下調和新的更低的作業費率4月份已經開始落地,該行認為中海油服下行風險均已經釋放,建議投資者關注中海油服。

此外,中金看好中國煉化行業,尤其是民營煉廠。首推恆力石化(600346.SH)和上海石化(00338.HK),認為目前國際油價和中國煉化行業正處於漸入佳境的趨勢中。該行認為,油價若觸底並溫和回升,將利好中國煉化行業,有望帶來非常可觀的盈利復蘇的機會。相比國營煉廠,該行認為民營煉廠可能更能夠保留「地板價」政策帶來的超額收益,而民營煉廠也有望得益於更高的加工負荷率而加大對原油的抄底。中金預計煉化公司業績從今年第二季開始有望持續出現環比改善的趨勢,而近期油價持續溫和向上的趨勢,亦有望成為板塊投資的另一個重要催化劑。(wl/u)

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