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中國科培(01890.HK):辦學優勢明顯,內外兼修持續增長可期,維持“買入”評級,目標價7.8港元
格隆匯 06-05 09:02

機構:國元證券

評級:買入

目標價:7.8港元

投資要點

國內領先的民辦高等教育集團:

中國科培是國內領先的民辦高等教育集團,專注於專業型教育,其自建的廣東理工學院、 肇慶學校分別是華南地區最大的民辦高校和廣東省最大的民辦中職學校,2019/20 學年這兩所學校的在校人數分別達 50,315/7,609 人。集團辦學成績優異, 旗下廣東理工學院近年初次就業率持續處於省內民辦高校首位,其中 2019 年就業率達 97.8%,高出全省平均約 4.3個百分點。

內生增長動力十足:

未來廣東理工學院有望持續享受廣東省提高毛入學率的政策紅利, 其中本科人數仍有較大增長空間, 預計未來高考統招本科生及專插本本科生在校生人數將升至 36,000人,較 2019年全年約 24,000 人仍有 50%的提升空間。廣東理工學院鼎湖校區預計於 2020 年下半年新增 3,000 個牀位,高要校區預計於 2021 年下半年新增 7,000 個牀位,未來 2 年合計增加 1 萬個牀位,以滿足未來內生增長的需求。

2020年 1 月收購哈爾濱石油學院,開啟外延併購序幕:

2020年 1 月公司以 14.5億元收購哈爾濱石油學院 100%股權, 實現上市以來首單併購。哈石油 2019 學年在校人數為 9,366人,100%均為本科生。學校教學質量高,2019年報到率 97.1%居黑龍江省民辦學校第一,就業率 96.2%排全省民辦高校第二,公司 3 月完成學校接管並確定學校控制權,可淨利潤並表,預計哈石油 2020年淨利潤同比增速或達 30%以上。

首次覆蓋給予買入評級,目標價 7.8港元

近期頻繁出台的穩就業高校擴招政策直接利好民辦高校未來學額的增長。 受益於此,我們預計公司旗下 3 所學校未來將保持較強的內生增長動力,在不考慮新的外延併購的情況下,未來 3 年淨利潤 CAGR 也有望保持 20%以上,結合行業估值情況,我們給予公司 2021年 20倍目標 PE,對應目標價為 7.8港元,較現價有 22.3%的漲幅空間,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。

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