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瑞銀:疫情對國內汽車業影響較預期少 供應鏈最壞時候已過去
阿思達克 06-04 11:46
瑞銀投資銀行研究部亞太汽車行業分析師鞏旻於電話會議表示,中國汽車在4月至5月銷售復甦表現超預期,對今年表現相對偏樂觀,預期全年銷售由跌雙位數升至跌單位數,由第二季銷售開始轉正,第三季會升至雙位數。

他指,去年第三季有國五升級、國六標準的影響,令基數較低,加上市場消化疫情影響較預期快,該行在2月中及4月首周分別對1,000人進行調查,受訪者對購車意慾由17%增至27%,相信是他們與疫情後的樂觀情緒有關,預期購買力會於未來數月釋放。

他又指,國內汽車業汲取過去經驗,有儲存進口國外關鏈零部件,在疫情期間亦看到汽車製造商都保有1-2個月儲備,故相信對生產和成本無大影響,而目前歐美廠房已陸續復工,故在供應鏈上最壞時候已過去。

他表示,疫情不會對電動車有負面影響,但或有個別製造商在融資方面有影響,如估值方面。至於Tesla在國內設廠,有助提升產業鏈,包括技術進步和拉動汽車業的上下游。對於兩會中提及汽車業的政策,他指大致上符合預期。

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