大摩認為合景泰富(01813.HK)增長前景可期 給予“增持”評級
近日，摩根士丹利(“大摩”)發佈報告，表示合景泰富(01813.HK)目前股價未完全反映其在城市更新方面的可觀收益。在當前波動明顯的市場環境中，合景泰富盈利增長前景可期。大摩認為，合景泰富是該行中小型開發商中首選，給予“增持”評級，目標股價為17.0港元。
2020-2022年強勁盈利增長可見性高
大摩預計，合景泰富2020-2022年的核心利潤增長強勁，原因包括，一是受益於合景泰富優質豐富的土地儲備，以及90％位於一二線城市的佈局，2016-2019年合同銷售增長強勁，年複合增長率達35％，公司亦計劃未來幾年銷售規模繼續增長；二是得益於合理的土地成本及自2019年以來公司謹慎的土地購置策略，毛利率有望穩定維持在行業較高水平；三是未來城市更新項目帶來的潛在盈利貢獻。
城市更新作為土儲補充和未來增長的關鍵引擎
大摩認為，合景泰富的城市更新業務將為集團帶來巨大增長潛力，保守估計其城市更新業務將使淨資產值增長54％。
憑藉合景泰富在廣州市區超過10年的舊改成功經驗，以及與廣東本地市場的緊密聯繫和口碑，大摩相信在廣州當前有利的政策環境下，合景泰富是城市更新的主要受益者。合景泰富現已簽約26個城市更新項目，可售貨值預計為人民幣5850億元，其中87％位於廣州，預計2020年部分項目可轉化為土地儲備。
今年內物管板塊分拆上市成市值提升另一助推器
大摩認為，2019年合景泰富物管收入增長79%至人民幣10.1億元，預計其2020-2022年物管收入年增長約40%。根據物管行業平均淨利潤率15%及2021年行業平均市盈率18-24倍計算，大摩估計合景泰富物業管理板塊估值預期人民幣54-75億元。
優質的土地儲備將帶動銷售增長
大摩認為，合景泰富較強的可售資源來源於城市分佈及合理成本。可售貨值中約有86％位於城市羣中，其中大灣區佔53％，長三角佔11％，環渤海佔13％，中西部佔10％。截至2019年底，大摩計算合景泰富的平均土地成本為每平方米人民幣4997元(不包括香港項目)，僅佔其2019年合約銷售均價的29％，從而確保其盈利能力。大摩相信，合景泰富豐富優質的可售貨值可以為未來的合同銷售增長提供有力的支持。
估值具吸引力 為大摩中小型開發商的首選
大摩估計，合景泰富2020年市盈率為4.9倍，2020年底的資產淨值折讓61％，估值較其他中小型開發商吸引。在銷售增長目標、城市更新業務、優質土儲及物業管理板塊分拆的推動下，合景泰富增長潛力龐大，認為合景泰富是該行中小型開發商中首選並給予“增持”評級，目標股價為17.0港元。
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