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中彙集團(00382.HK):商科民辦高教龍頭,盡享大灣區發展紅利,首次“買入”評級
格隆匯 06-03 09:10

機構:國盛證券

評級:買入

大灣區最大民辦商科高等教育集團,高教政策+大灣區發展紅利:按2017/2018學年商務專業的總入學人數,公司是大灣區最大民辦商科高等教育集團。2019/2020 年 H1,公司分別實現營收 7.0 億元/4.2 億元,分別同比增長 10.7%/18.9%,經調整淨利潤 2.4 億元/1.5 億元,分別同比增長30.9%/35.4%。穩就業導向下民辦高教政策持續加碼支持行業發展,大灣區作為中國最重要的製造業和商業中心之一,預計2022年第三產業從業人員比例或提升至42.2%,推動專業人才培養需求增長。

國內+海外協同,自建+外延並舉,學校資產質地優異。公司旗下共三所自建學校、一所收購學校,國內外良好協同,資產質地優異辦學質量高。

華商學院:廣東財經大學下屬獨立學院,全國排名第 29 位,截至2020H1共37個本科專業,在校生24110人,近三年 CAGR為5.2%。

華商職業學院:截至2020H1共44個專科專業,在校生10661人。其中旅遊專業及酒店管理專業為廣東省“重點建設學科”。

澳洲國際商學院:ASQA認可的職業教育及培訓註冊培訓機構,提供提供高級文憑、文憑或其他職業教育培訓認可的證書以及其他非學歷教育課程。截至2020H1,學校在校學生人數為506人。

新加坡NYU Language School:收購於2019年12月,獲得新加坡教育部門 EduTrust 的權威認證,提供長短期語言培訓課程及各類新加坡學校入學預備課程,截至2020H1在校學生人數為23人。

擴建推動辦學資源優化,支撐中長期可持續發展。校區擴建穩步推進,四會一期預計2020年9月投入使用,可增加6000學生容量支撐內生增長;增城校區擴建華商科技中心與華商國際會議中心,以升級教學場地;實訓平台持續優化,截止目前超過20000人蔘與實訓課程。

校企合作廣泛,產教融合助力學生就業。公司旗下學校已與100+優質企業建立合作關係,通過產教融合的教學培養模式提高學生就業競爭力,旗下國內高等院校就業率 95%+顯著優於行業水平,2019 年華商會計學院畢業生108人進入2019年中注協國內前50大會計師事務所工作。

投資建議。公司為大灣區民辦商科龍頭,內生+外延成長確定性強,預計公司 2020-2022 年歸母淨利潤分別為 2.90/3.54/4.18 億元,同增34%/21.8%/18.1%,對應 EPS0.29/0.35/0.41 元。我們給予公司目標價2020年22倍估值,對應目標價6.95港元,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。

風險提示: 新校區建設或不及預期的風險、宏觀經濟持續低迷的風險、《民促法》未來落地或存政策性風險。

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