光大新鴻基:環球經濟復甦步伐緩慢 恆指下半年上望26,500點
光大新鴻基表示,對下半年環球投資市場展望審慎樂觀,預期經濟復甦步伐緩慢,主要受疫情不穩、債券市場違約危機、美國大選及中美關係緊張所拖累。證券策略師伍禮賢指出,港股上半年已見全年最高及最低位置,預期下半年恆指表現堅韌但缺乏彈性,目標上望26,500點,下望21,000至22,000點。
他表示,下半年可留意政策重點扶持、受惠經濟復甦及受外圍影響較少的板塊,包括新經濟、物管、5G概念,關注中興通訊(00763.HK)、中國鐵塔(00788.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)、佳兆業美好(02168.HK)、阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及美團點評(03690.HK)。
光大新鴻基財富管理策略師溫傑指出,中國今年首季GDP下跌6.8%,預期未來政府經濟投資力度將加大,估計第二至四季GDP將增長3.5%、5.3%及6.1%,全年度GDP或增長2.4%。環球市場方面繼續看好黃金,預期下半年金價介乎1,500至1,900美元,亦看好無接觸經濟、雲業務在疫情後的發展。
市場擔憂港區國安法將引發美國制裁及中國反制等一系列活動,溫傑指暫時未知措施具體實行細節,因此只算是本地因素,未見對外圍影響,由於太多太多變數,難以量化影響。
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