旭輝控股集團(00884.HK)：並表永升服務，提升公司價值，首次“增持”評級
機構：華西證券
評級：增持
事件概述
旭輝控股以總對價港幣 7.83 億（每股 10.19 港元，較永升服務前 5 個交易日平均收市價折讓 10%），向林氏家族收購 5%永升服務股票（7682 萬股），交易完成後旭輝控股對永升的持股比例增至 26.48%，同時，林氏家族將持有永升服務的 23.64%股權對應的投票表決權委託予旭輝控股。
“旭輝+永升”協同並進，公司價值最大化
交易完成後，旭輝控股持有永升服務 50.12%的投票權，從而形成對永升服務的控制，可將其並表。“旭輝+永升”的聯合品牌，有望在地產及物管的發展上帶來更多方面的協同效應。當前，永升服務的業務發展空間大、潛力高，增速快，可為股東持續創造價值。此外，物管業務具有毛利率高，低槓桿等特點，並表後結轉收入增加、綜合毛利率提升，淨負債水平改善，經常性收入的顯著增加，將有助於旭輝的信用評級的提升，從而降低財務成本，實現公司利益的最大化。
業績穩健增長，盈利能力逐步提高
2019 財年公司實現營業收入 548.7 億元，同比增長 29.3%，歸母淨利潤 64.4 億元，同比增長 19.0%，業績連續多年穩定增長。報告期內，公司淨資產收益率和銷售毛利率分別為 21.3%和25.1%、分別較上年同期上升 0.2 和 0.1pct，盈利水平進一步向上。
銷售持續快增，拿地趨於謹慎
2019 財年公司實現銷售金額 2006 億元，同比增長 32.0%；實現銷售面積 1203.6 萬平方米，同比增長 25.8%，位居克而瑞銷售排行榜第 15 位。拿地方面，2019 年公司新增土儲1520 萬平方米，同比增長 23%，對應總地價 825 億元，同比增長 7%，拿地金額/銷售金額的比例為 41.1%，較去年下降 9.5pct，拿地力度有所降低。
投資建議
旭輝控股集團業績穩步增長，銷售靚麗，可售貨值充裕，財務持續優化，我們預計公司 20-22 財年的 EPS為 0.99/1.18/1.41元，對應 PE 為 5.6/4.7/4.0 倍，公司估值在可比房企中處於較低的水平，首次覆蓋給予公司“增持”評級。
風險提示
銷售不及預期，結算利潤率下滑。
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