美團點評-W(03690.HK)：用户／商户數增長超預期，疫情影響收入有所降低，維持“買入”評級，目標價167.31港元
機構：東方證券
評級：買入
目標價：167.31港元
核心觀點
整體來看，疫情對短期業績有衝擊，但是長期來看可培養用户習慣並加快商户數字化轉型，公司活躍用户和商户同比保持正增長。截至 3/31，公司的年交易用户數同比+8.9%至 4.49 億人；人均年交易次數同比+5.6%至 26.2次/年；年活躍商家同比+5.3%至 610 萬家。20Q1 實現收入 167.5 億元，yoy-12.6%（佣金 yoy-18%，在線營銷服務 yoy+0.1%）；經調整淨虧損額為 2.16 億元，利潤率同比提升 4.2pct 至-1.3%。
外賣業務：高端商户增加拉高客單，目前恢復速度較塊。 20Q1 日單量 1,51萬筆，yoy-18.2%；疫情期間品牌/連鎖餐飲的訂單佔比提升，單位訂單金額同比增加 6.6 元至52 元/單；外賣 GTV 同比微降 5.4%至 715億元。由於疫情衝擊和 KA 商户佔比提升，變現率有所降低， 外賣業務收入同比降 11.4%外賣業務恢復速度較塊，至 3月末日單量已經恢復至疫情前 75%的水平。
到店和酒旅業務：受衝擊最大，恢復速度較慢。20Q1 酒店間夜量同比降45.5%至 4,280 萬，其中本地住宿及低線城市的商旅住宿恢復速度更快，因此美團相比同行有一定結構上的優勢。為了加快行業復甦，公司推出“安心住”項目，但相比外賣業務，到店和酒店的恢復速度相對較慢；20Q1 到店收入同比降 31%至 31 億元（佣金降 50.6%，廣告降 8.2%）；營業利潤率為 22%，同比降13.5pct。
新業務：今年投入力度不減。新業務收入 20Q1 同比+4.9%至 41.7 億元，營業利潤率同比提 32.3pct。網約車及 B2B 業務收入有所減少，美團閃購和小額貸款收入增加。公司管理層在公開業績交流會上表示，今年仍然會從長期戰略角度出發，保持對共享單車、閃購、美團買菜、B2B 業務的持續投入。
財務預測與投資建議
我們預測公司 20-22 年 EPS 分別為 0.27/2.85/4.45 元.。採取分部估值，參考可比公司，給予外賣業務 4.8x PS，預計 21 年收入 917 億CNY；到店及酒旅給予 31x PE，預計 21 年實現利潤 146億 CNY；不考慮新業務的估值公司合理估值為 9749 億 HKD，目標價 167.31 元，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：市場競爭加劇，佣金率提升水平不及預期，到店業務恢復緩慢。
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