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旅遊板塊飄紅走強!消費情緒反彈消化利空情緒
格隆匯 05-29 10:46

5月29日,A股旅遊板塊漲勢強勢,其中,凱撒旅業拉昇漲停,眾信旅遊漲超8%,中國國旅、騰邦國際、西安旅遊、雲南旅遊有所跟漲。

 來源於:Wind

而支撐這一漲勢背後的原因,除了受此前凱撒宣佈與途牛達成戰略合作,進而帶動旅遊板塊的整體拉昇之外,還是在於隨着國內疫情防控常態化,趨於平穩,再加上政策刺激消費的利好釋放,市場情緒對人們出遊預期向好有關

來源於:官方公告

雖然就全球範圍內來説,新冠疫情這隻黑天鵝已然重創了旅遊業,其中,根據中國旅遊研究院測算,2020年一季度及全年,國內旅遊人次或將分別下降56%和15.5%,國內旅遊收入或將分別下降69%和20.6%,預計全年國內旅遊人次或將同比減少9.32億人次,減收或達1.18萬億元。

但基於目前國內疫情趨勢向好,消費的恢復受政策利好而得到有效引導,市場或對旅遊板塊的向好預期有所提升,根據中國社會科學院旅遊研究中心等機構發佈的4月《新冠肺炎疫情下的旅遊需求趨勢調研報告》顯示,79%的人對旅遊持正面積極態度,認可旅遊活動的價值,對旅遊具有較強的情感偏好

東方證券認為,旅遊板塊業績利空逐步釋放帶動整體板塊估值修復,隨着各地消費提振政策落地,市場對板塊短期改善預期提升。站在當前時間點,無論是長期優質白馬,抑或是板塊彈性品種酒店、景區,均已處於歷史估值大底,具備較高的配置性價比。

民生證券分析師指出,由於國內疫情發展時間較早,且政府管制力度較大,目前國內疫情趨於平穩,若政府繼續對海外疫情輸入管控得當,我們認為暑期國內遊有望較出境遊率先恢復,同時部分出境遊需求或將轉向國內遊,對國內休閒景區、離島免税等子板塊形成利好。

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