石藥集團(01093.HK)：疫情影響下仍經營穩健，擬科創板CDR發行引活水，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
疫情影響下 Q1業績略超預期。公司20Q1 收入61.3 億元（+11.5%） ，經營溢利11.6億元（+0.6%），歸母淨利潤11.6 億元（+21.8%），每股盈利18.59 分（+21.8%），收入端增速略超市場預期。毛利率同比提升 4.0pp至73.9%，公司盈利結構持續優化。此外，在六大疾病領域核心品種驅動下成藥業務增長18.3%，原料藥增長放緩。
成藥業務表現理想，心腦血管與呼吸條線成亮點。1）成藥產品線表現靚麗，Q1 營收達到 50.22 億元（+18.3%） 。其中神經系統用藥收入 16.5億元（-4.3%），恩必普持續市場下沉，Q1 仍增長18.1%至 14.5 億元，考慮到終端下沉與學術推廣齊發力，預計全年有望保持較快增長。2）其他板塊中，心血管產品收入5.82 億元（+66.5%），其中恩存於19年集採中標已帶來增量收入，玄寧恢復快速增長；呼吸系統用藥收入 1.9 億元（+98.9%）中，琦效受疫情影響錄得可觀收入。
克艾力銷售強勁，抗腫瘤產品線增長動力充足。抗腫瘤產品 Q1 營收達15.52億元（+53.7%，15-19 年CAGR 達87%） 。其中，多美素和津優力銷售同比分別增長 13.7%/64.5%；克艾力受益於產品起效快與線上推廣，貢獻超 5 億元（+114%） ，降價納入集採後有望迎來滲透率大幅提升和對普通劑型的替代空間，預計 20 年有望實現 25%以上增長。隨着公司在抗腫瘤領域影響力的逐步建立，預計該板塊未來幾年有望維持強勁增長。
研發投入強勁，管線穩步推進。公司研發力度持續增加，Q1 研發費用達5.68億元，佔成藥收入比重為11.3%，處於行業領先水平且有望持續加碼。仿製藥共有 23個品種、35 個品規通過一致性評價，有望藉助帶量採購政策快速切入市場。新藥方面，新型製劑、大分子和小分子研發平台各具特色，預計 21~22 年有望每年推動 3~5 個新藥品種上市，其中兩性黴素B脂質體、米託蒽醌脂質體、RANKL、PI3K抑制劑有望於20~21年獲批，預計將成為公司新一代重磅產品。
盈利預測與投資評級。疫情對1季度的影響有限，銷售和研發層面各項進展正陸續恢復，此外公司披露擬進行人民幣股份或中國存託憑證發行並於科創板上市，有望拓寬融資渠道。我們維持 20~22 年 EPS 預測為0.72/0.86/1.02 元，對應20~22年 PE分別為21/18/15x。公司儲備重磅品種有望有序上市，當前估值具吸引力，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：原料藥價格波動，產品銷售不及預期，研發不及預期。
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