美團點評-W(03690.HK)：恢復速度逾預期，增長勢頭將持續，維持“買入”評級，目標價152港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：152港元
投資要點
業績超預期，恢復速度迅速。1Q20 收入 167.5 億(YoY-12.8%)，超出我們預期 4%，超出彭博一致預期 7.5%；經調整 EBITDA 達 4131.1 萬，經調整淨虧損為2.16億，去年同期為虧損 10.5億，調整後淨虧損率為 1.3%，超我們預期4.3個pcts，超彭博一致預期約 6個 pcts。
場景擴充疊加高端餐飲商家的入駐驅動客單價大幅提升， 外賣單量及外賣營業額現已基本恢復。1Q20 公司餐飲外賣收入為 95 億(YoY-11.4%)，超出我們預期 3.5 個 pcts；交易筆數達 13.7 億筆(YoY-17%)，由於家庭用餐等場景擴充疊加品牌商家的入駐，客單價上升至52元(YoY+14.4%)。我們判斷，由於特殊期間單效下滑與額外措施，單均配送成本達約 8元，目前商家數量和單量基本常態化，預計下季將恢復同比增長。
到店業務仍處恢復階段，本地住宿間夜實現增長，預計 2H20恢復增長。到店業務收入為 30.9 億(YoY-31%)，截至 5 月初，到店餐飲約恢復了80%，其他到店業務恢復約 60%，酒店方面，本地住宿的間夜量已實現同比增長，而異地間夜量恢復 60%， 預計 2Q20 到店業務仍將同比下滑 16%，但下半年到店商家會加大廣告與預算搶佔流量，全年預計同比基本持平。
新業務擴大開支。 該業務收入41.7億(YoY+5%)， 經營虧損率由去年的65%收窄至33%。公司計劃在今年完成剩餘300萬輛舊單車的更換，一半將於2Q完成，同時還將在批量投入電動自行車，並且加強 B2B餐飲供應鏈能力，預計今年新業務的投入將大於去年。
投資建議：維持“買入”評級，上調目標價至152港元。我們看好公司在本地生活服務的龍頭地位，外賣盈利能力將隨着規模效應持續提升，數據變現與服務生態也具有巨大空間。目前基本面已從疫情撞擊中觸底。我們上調公司20/21年的營收至1128/1611億元，經調整經營利潤為24/159億元。根據SOTP 估值上調公司目標價至 152港元，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：1）政策風險；2）市場競爭加劇；3）餐飲行業景氣度下行；4）新業務減虧不及預期
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