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植耀輝: 「ATMX」業績短評
阿思達克 05-27 10:52
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,本地四隻最為人熟悉及關注之股份「ATMX」已先後公布季績,早前已跟大家淺談過騰訊(00700),筆者認為亦值得分享對其餘三間之看法。先談另一間巨無霸阿里巴巴(09988)。阿里巴巴季績在一致看淡下交出不俗成績表,以其年度計第四季收入為1,143.1億元人民幣,按年增長22%,雖然是自2016年以來增速最慢的一季,但仍優於市場預期,淨利潤則因出現投資淨損失而倒退99%。整體而言,由於第一季內地受疫情衝擊,對線上零售市場淘寶及天貓之物流作業難免帶來影響;另一核心業務阿里雲則仍見強勁增長,全年度計阿里雲營突破400億元人民幣,於亞太市場市佔率升至28%(資料來源:Gartner),繼續成為區內「一哥」。而集團給予之2021年度收入指引為6,500億人民幣,按年增長27.5%。有指該增速令人失望,但筆者倒覺得如在現市況仍能達到此目標,已屬相當不錯了。

至於美團(03690),首季虧損已是預期之內,筆者反而覺得其虧損較預期中少,原因在於利潤率較高之到店、酒店及旅遊收入較預期高(僅倒退31%),同時餐飲外賣經營虧損亦較預期少,業績有此表現已算有所交待。不過,從經營數據表現卻反映前景有一定隱憂,雖然交易用戶及每位交易用戶平均每年交易宗數按年仍能有8.9%及5.3%增長,但增速過去一年其實正不斷「減速」,以去年同期(2019年3月)為例,增速便分別為26.4%及23.8%。數據難免令人擔心美團高增長期已過,加上第二季到店、酒店及旅遊收入仍存在相當變數,未來發展似乎頗具挑戰。

最後則要談談小米(01810)。雖然筆者一向對小米投資價值有保留,但今年第一季業績卻頗有驚喜,收入及經調整淨利潤分別上升13.6%及10.6%;智能手機表現亦亮麗,銷量逆市增長4.7%至2,920萬部,市佔率升至11.1%,連帶海外收入佔比亦超過5成。不過,集團IOT業務表現則較失色,增長僅得7.8%,相比之下,去年全年及第四季增速便分別達到41.7%及30.5%。

但第二季可能才是小米最大挑戰。雖然海外市場表現理想,但其主要市場包括印度及西歐等踏入第二季後疫情開始大爆發,印度近日確診情況更令外界擔心,所以第二季業績有相當大機會受到拖累。

美團及小米在筆者眼中未來發展似乎有相當多變數。然而,兩者股價依然備受追捧,美團昨日便再破頂兼大升一成。事實上,績後大行看法仍十分正面且看好,成為股價上升趨化劑,但更重要可能是北水「加持」─截至週二數據,北水持有小米及美團之百分比便分別達到5.8%及4.66%─這亦或可解釋為何美團及小米股價會大幅跑贏阿里巴巴矣!

筆者持有阿里巴巴股份~

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