愛帝宮(286.HK)：月子中心第一股，高標準運營體系構築深厚護城河，首次給予“買入”評級，目標價0.80港元
機構：第一上海證券
評級：買入
目標價：0.80港元
專注科學母嬰照護的月子中心優質龍頭，正處行業高速增長期：愛帝宮於 2007 年在廣東深圳成立，為國內月子中心龍頭企業，涵蓋月子中心及母嬰相關增值服務。2019 年深圳愛帝宮實現高速增長，營收同比增長高達 52%至 6.58 億港元，淨利潤同比增長高達58%至 1.05 億港元；2016-2019 年收入及淨利潤複合增長分別高達62.3%及 92.8%。考慮到目前國內月子中心市場滲透率僅達 5%左右，處於行業高速發展初期，2019-2025 年中高端月子中心市場複合增速有望達 23.9%，預計 2025 年月子中心市場規模有望突破 280 億元。
深圳月子中心市佔率第一，品牌優勢明顯：作為早期立足於深圳最優月子中心市場的企業之一，愛帝宮憑藉優秀口碑及高質量服務穩居國內市場領先地位，佔全國市場份額的 4.3%，佔深圳月子中心市場份額的 31.0%，領先後者 17.6pp，且剩餘排名前四機構合計僅佔市場 23.1%，品牌優勢明顯，隨着市場滲透率的穩步上升，有望實現高速增長。
高度標準化運營體系加速門店擴張，有望持續快速成長：公司擁有專業培訓團隊及完善的培訓體系，已建立 9 大月子照護服務體系，涵蓋 1300 餘項操作要點，高標準化運營體系加速月子中心擴張速度，成功實現門店異地快速複製，有望維持行業領先地位。
平均單房年盈利持續上升，預付費模式造就強勁現金流：公司平均單房盈利持續穩步上升，2019 年平均單房年盈利同比上升 14.0%至 24.10 萬港元，淨資產收益率高達 38.6%，我們認為公司未來盈利水平有望維持高增長態勢。除此，公司月子中心服務需提前 3–6 個月預訂並支付 30%的合同訂金，且入住當天付全款，我們認為預付費模式造就公司強勁現金流，將保障擴張計劃順利進行。
目標價 0.80 港元，首次評級買入：考慮到愛帝宮為首家母嬰健康行業上市公司，且擁有較強抗週期能力，我們採用 DCF 估值法，假設 WACC 為 10%，永續增長率為 1%，綜合月子中心擴張計劃，測算得出合理估值為 31 億港幣，目標價 0.80 港元，對應 2020 年 25 倍市盈率，較現價有 92.7%上升空間，首次評級為買入。
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