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华侨银行料港元拆息续升 但不高於2厘
阿思达克 05-26 14:37
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告指,投资者对香港社会运动卷土重来及资金外流风险的担忧,令美元/港元现价和远期价格飙升。另外,市场预期继京东及网易计划於6月来港二次上市後,将有更多企业在港进行IPO,因为港交所(00388.HK)正寻求缩短IPO结算周期,此举或有助提升香港IPO市场的吸引力。

近期中美冲突开始涉及金融领域,则可能削弱中资企业在美上市的意欲。再者,即将到来的半年结及上市企业派息季,料将推升港元需求。总括而言,在当前银行总结余水平偏低的情况下,以上因素结合,令港元拆息全线上升。展望未来一个月,该行预期港元拆息将进一步向上。不过,除非政治因素带来实质影响,否则并不认为港元拆息(一个月或更长的期限)会突破2厘的水平,因港美息差扩大将支持港元走强,甚至可能引发干预,从而增加银行间流动性。

其他方面,2至4月失业率飙升一个百分点,至2009年以来最高的5.2%,远逊於预期。所有主要行业失业率同步上升,其中零售、住宿及膳食服务业的失业率上升至超过十五年以来新高的9%,情况最为严重。从好的方面来看,旅发局表示6月中将推出「旅游就在香港」计划,以重振旅游相关行业,总预算开支为4,000万元。

展望未来,一旦全球解除封锁措施,将意味着香港和澳门旅游相关行业渡过了最坏的时期。然而,两个地区旅游相关行业的复苏,仍将受到以下因素的制约,包括对第二轮疫情爆发的担忧、内外需求冲击、强港元和澳门元,以及卷土重来的社会运动。

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