藥明生物(02269.HK)：多重引擎助力，外包服務全球賦能，給予“增持”評級
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
本報告導讀：
生物藥 CDMO行業高景氣，公司為行業龍頭，處戰略實施兑現期，同時積極開展疫苗 CDMO等新興業務，盈利能力有望進一步提升。
摘要：
首次覆蓋，給予“增持”評級。公司在全球生物藥 CDMO 行業處於領先地位，訂單結構健康，公司戰略佈局深遠，未來有望賦能全球生物藥產業。預測公司 2020-2022 年 EPS 為 1.09/1.58/2.14 元。參考行業可比公司估值，給予2020 年目標PE 123.6X，對應目標價 150.5港幣。首次覆蓋，給予增持評級。
生物藥CDMO 為醫藥行業增速最快的細分領域之一。生物藥在過去 2年蓬勃發展， 2012-2019年常年佔據全球前十大暢銷藥中 7-8個席位2019 年美國 FDA藥品審評和研究中心（CDER）共批准 48 個創新藥，其中11個為生物藥。受益於生物藥蓬勃發展，生物藥CDMO 市場也隨之崛起，弗若斯特沙利文預計 2018-2022年全球市場年複合增速達到16.8%，中國市場增速達到 19.5%。2019 年，藥明生物佔全球份額為5.1%，全球排名第三；中國市場份額 78.6%，遙遙領先，未來憑藉“跟隨藥物分子發展階段擴大業務”和“全球雙廠生產”戰略，有望進一步提高市佔比。
公司目前正處於迭代蜕變階段，未來有望成為全球生物藥賦能平台。1）積極擴大產能，實現全球供應鏈，預計到2022年，公司產能將超28 萬升，地域跨越北美、歐洲、中國、東南亞等國家地區；2）疫苗和新型藥物範式業務備受期待，公司為全球第一家疫苗商業化CMO公司，開創疫苗行業全新合作模式，助力公司持續高速增長；3）投資生物藥和上下游公司，深化全產業鏈佈局， 助力降低抗體研發生產成本有望以此擴大業務。藥明生物在品牌、產品類別、產品質量、工藝、生產成本、供應鏈等競爭要素方面積累的優勢有望逐漸加大，形成以最低的成本生產出質量最好的產品的核心競爭力。
催化劑：商業化生產訂單落地，全球產業鏈佈局推進。
風險提示：關鍵客户流失的風險；政策變化的風險；新冠疫情影響超預期；外匯波動的風險。
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