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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調阿里(BABA.US)目標價至243美元 評級「買入」
阿思達克 05-25 10:24
匯豐研究發表的報告指,儘管受疫情影響,阿里上季表現仍然穩健,但其盈利增長似乎未獲市場欣賞,最大的爭議仍然在於市場競爭將如何演變,究竟是透過「補貼戰」、商戶選擇、基建抑或是科技戰,該行認為阿里明顯是領頭者,而其競爭對手才剛剛開始進取投資於用戶維繫及雲基建上。阿里有多個平台針對不同的客戶層,而公司在高端城市(覆蓋率85%)和發展較少地區(覆蓋率40%)擁有7.2億的用戶基礎,在低端城市則有增長空間。以快速消費品為例,受多個平台、技術及基建所支撐,阿里的總交易額已是競爭對手的幾倍。該行估計2021財年將是另一個投資年,故將其2021/22財年經營溢利預測降2.4%及0.8%,以反映公司策略投資滲透較低端城市並加強基建,目標價由255美元降至243美元。

該行指出雖然搜尋仍然客戶管理業務中最主要的貢獻者,但公司已開始加大廣告變現,並聚焦於變現比例較低的流量,例如是建議帖文及直播等,現時帖文的日活躍用戶已超逾搜尋,而直播電商亦有助留客。

該行指出期內佣金收入按年跌2%主要因為訂單取消、服務表現弱勢及免卻年費以支持商戶等,但相信踏入6月份的季度將維持健康表現,主要因為天貓實體商品總交易額今季以來已升29%,增速較上季有所加快,而今季以來內地零售方面的總交易額增長已高於截至去年12月底的季度,反映早前表現較弱的品類如服裝等亦有所復甦。此外,快遞量4月份反彈32%,意味需求亦開始獲得滿足。

在阿里雲方面增長維持穩健,上季增長58%,該行估計在疫情下其表現亦較有彈性,而居家抗疫的措施亦帶動雲服務客戶的數碼化需求,公司致力建構SaaS的生態系統以推動下一波的增長,而計劃未來3年花2,000億人幣資本開支意味公司有很大的意志要維持行業第一。

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