《大行報告》摩通:中資股策略轉吸周期性行業 首選萬科、藥明生物及阿里等
摩根大通發表報告表示,隨著內地推動復工復產下,周期性復甦良好,而全國人大於5月22日開幕,指當局財政支持經濟政策較市場預期為大,財政組合措施相當GDP的8.4%,高於該行原先基本情境預測的7.7%,包括3.76萬億人民幣的財政赤字預算、3.75萬億地方特別債券及1萬億特別國債。
該行指,中美兩國關係日趨緊張,從貿易到科技的壓力上升,美國亦公布對華為出口限制,亦見金融及地緣領域的衝突。摩通指,考慮到內地本土經濟催化及面臨外部挑戰因素後,投資主題決定由防守性轉至周期性板塊,預期本地消費、內房及新舊基建固投可推動經濟復甦。該行予MSCI中國指數基本情境至今年年底目標為92,相當預測市盈率12.5倍。
摩通表示,在該行中資股模擬組合中,剔出中移動(00941.HK)及調低對中資電訊行業評級至「減持」,內銀股方面,以建行(00939.HK)取代交行(03328.HK)。而該行在行業中建議「增持」包括工業、日用消費品、醫療、耐用消費品及內房,但建議「減持」能源、公用、通訊服務、資訊科技及保險行業。
該行亦列出其中資股最新首選股,包括萬科(02202.HK)、藥明生物(02269.HK)、在美上市的阿里巴巴(BABAUS)、三一重工(600031.SH)及貴州茅台(600519.SH)。(wl/k)
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